Abstract:

Based on the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), from the perspective of rare disaster, this paper analysis the potential risk of government investment structure changes on the steady development of China’s macro economy. The research suggests that the government investment spending will show a significant negative effect for our country's macroeconomic, which increase the economic risk by crowding out the private investment, but service expenditure and other expenditure’s influence are relatively smaller in the disaster economy. At the same time, this paper discusses the influence of different disaster macroeconomic types by distinguishing the TFP disaster, capital disaster and double disaster. The study found that the shocks of double disaster for the macroeconomic more than the TFP disaster and capital disaster. TFP disaster has weak effect for the output, consumption and private investment and capital disaster has weak effect for the employment.

摘要：

基于动态随机一般均衡理论(DSGE)，从罕见灾难的角度出发，分析政府投资结构变动对我国宏观经济平稳发展产生的潜在风险。研究表明，政府投资性支出过度无论在单一财政支出形式还是复合型财政支出形式下对灾难经济体均表现出显著的负效应，其对私人投资的挤出效应加剧了我国宏观经济的风险，而服务性支出以及其他支出形式在灾难经济体中的影响相对较小。同时，通过区分TFP灾难、资本灾难和双重灾难三种情形，分别探讨不同灾难类型对宏观经济的影响，研究发现，双重灾难对宏观经济的整体冲击远大于TFP灾难和资本灾难对经济的影响；TFP灾难与资本灾难各有侧重，TFP灾难对企业产出、居民消费及私人投资的冲击最小，资本灾难对就业的影响最弱。