Abstract: China's provincial panel data from 2010 to 2015 are applied to analysis the impact of local government debts on industrial economic level. Results indicate that local government debts have positive influence on industrial economic level significantly. Local government made construction land prices lower by making differential distribution of state-owned construction land, and put most of the debt income into strengthening infrastructure construction which realize the investment promotion and industrial economic development. This conclusion is sound. It's unsustainable that debts were used to promote the development of industrial economy which existed potential risk, and the basic law of economic development must be ordered. At the same time, we should guard against the real economy risks from local government debt risks, as well as the possible effects on country fiscal system.

Key words: Local Government Debts, Industrial Economic Level, Debt Risk

摘要： 本文利用2010~2015年30个省份的面板数据,对地方政府举债对工业经济的影响进行了实证分析。结果表明:地方政府举债对工业经济水平产生显著的正向影响,地方政府通过对国有建设用地的差异化配给,压低工业建设用地价格,并将大部分债务收入用于加强基础设施建设,实现招商引资,对工业经济发展产生了杠杆效果,这一结论是稳健的。以债务推动工业经济发展的模式面临潜在风险、不可持续,应遵从经济发展的基本规律;同时,应防范地方政府债务风险所引发的实体经济风险,以及财政风险。

关键词: 地方政府举债, 工业经济, 债务风险