Abstract: This article studies the critical factors for early-termination of PPP projects and analyzes the causal relationship among them.It first identifies the influencing factors causing early-termination of PPP projects (Abbreviated to "PET"), and then divide them into the basic factors and the stage-performance factors. It names the basic factors as the premise variables, the stage-performance factors as the intermediate variables, and nominates the two factors of relationship-termination and entity-termination as the consequence variables. It establishes a structural equation model, in which the premise variables generate the consequence variables via affecting the intermediate variables. Questionnaire is used for data collecting in this empirical study.SEM method is applied to test and modify the model. By calculating the effect of each variable, this research gains the following results: The "organization" risk factors and the "system" risk factors have the greatest impact on the relationship-termination, while the "Market" risk factors and the "environment" risk factors have the greatest impact on the entity-abandonment. Compared to the "operation phase", entity-abandonment is more likely to occur during the "construction phase" while relationship-termination is more likely to happen during the "operation phase". As the relationship-termination does not usually lead to delivery—while entity-abandonment usually does, it is important to realize that the dimensions of project failure caused by entity-abandonment are even more critical than those caused by relationship-termination.

Key words: Public-Private Partnership (PPP), Early-Termination, Causing Factors, Structural Equation Model

摘要： 本文在识别PPP项目提前终止影响因素的基础上,把影响因素划分为基本影响因子和阶段表现因子,建立了基本影响因子通过阶段表现因子综合作用导致PPP项目提前终止的结构方程模型,并对其进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,“组织”和“制度”风险因素对关系终止的影响作用最大,“市场”和“环境”风险因素对实体终止的影响作用最大,“建设风险”发生实体终止的系数要高于“运营风险”,而“运营风险”发生关系终止的系数要高于“建设风险”。虽然关系终止发生的频率要高于实体终止发生的频率,但是实体终止导致项目损失的程度要大于关系终止导致的损失程度。

关键词: 公私合作项目, 提前终止, 致因因素, 结构方程模型