Abstract: The demographic dividend is not equal to population transformation, which should take into account both labor and human capital. The paper proposes a generalized demographic dividend based on population structure, human capital and labor recreation. Through theoretical analysis, the empirical quantile regression and panel spatial Durbin model, we verify the internal mechanism among the generalized demographic dividend, manufacturing restructuring and economic growth. The results indicate that the effects of the generalized population dividend on economic growth is significant, which show different effects on manufacturing structure when three different spatial weight matrixes are employed. Population structure will drive industry's growth and promote the agglomeration of technology-intensive industry, and human capital will be more important in capital- or technology-intensive industry. However, the improvement of human capital quality in neighboring areas will cause industry fluctuations. In addition, this paper also finds that the role of human capital in developed economies cannot be compared by that of the backward economy, and the effects of labor recreation on economy tends to be U-shaped.

Key words: Generalized Demographic Dividend, Population Structure, Human Capital, Manufacturing Restructure, Economic Growth

摘要： 人口红利不等同于人口转变,本文将人口红利的内容扩展至人口结构、人力资本和劳动资源再创造三个方面,形成广义人口红利概念。理论分析表明,广义人口红利引发产业结构变迁,该“结构效应”对经济增长产生作用。进一步地,借助空间面板模型及面板分位数回归对理论假说进行实证检验。分析结果发现,广义人口红利对制造业结构的影响在面临行政距离、地理距离和经济距离时表现不同,对经济增长的作用则持续显著。人口结构的变化带动整个产业增长,推动技术密集型产业集聚,人力资本的提高对资本和技术密集型产业的促进作用较大,而邻近区域人力资本水平的提高则引起本地区产业波动。此外,人力资本在发达经济体的作用是落后经济体无法比拟的,劳动资源再创造对经济的作用基本呈现U型。

关键词: 广义人口红利, 人口结构, 人力资本, 制造业结构, 经济增长