Management Earnings Forecast Precision and the Adjustment of Investers' Heterogeneous Beliefs

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes the effect of management earnings forecast precision on the adjustment of investers' heterogeneous beliefs by constructing a theoretical model,and empirically tests it based on the earnings forecast of China's A-share listed companies from the first quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2015. We find that the higher precision of management earnings forecast helps to promote the adjustment of investers' heterogeneous beliefs and results in reducing investers' heterogeneous beliefs. Moreover,test based on the quality of the forecast news and whether the company has taken a merger or reorganization during the forecast also results in the same conclusion. These findings provide references to stabilize the volatility of the capital market,namely,by improving the precision of information disclosure,we can adjust and reduce investers' heterogeneous beliefs,and improve the consensus on the value of the company,and finally reduce the volatility of the capital market.

摘要： 本文通过构建理论模型分析了业绩预告精确性对投资者异质信念调整的作用,并以我国A股上市公司2007年1季度至2015年4季度管理层业绩预告为例进行实证检验。结果发现:高精确性的管理层业绩预告有利于促进投资者异质信念调整,并最终导致投资者异质信念降低;根据预告消息好坏以及预告期间公司是否发生兼并重组分组进行检验,结果依然支持了这一结论。本文的研究发现为稳定资本市场交易波动提供了参考依据,即通过提高上市公司信息披露的精确性,以调整并降低投资者异质信念,提高对公司投资价值的共识,最终降低资本市场交易波动。

关键词: 管理层业绩预告, 精确性, 投资者异质信念, 信念调整

CLC Number:

WANG Yingyun, GAO Jingzhong. Management Earnings Forecast Precision and the Adjustment of Investers' Heterogeneous Beliefs[J]. , 2018, 34(10): 68-76.

王英允, 高敬忠. 管理层业绩预告精确性与投资者异质信念调整[J]. 财经论丛, 2018, 34(10): 68-76.

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