Abstract: PPP project has many characteristics, such as numerous participants, large sunk costs and long construction period, so there may be many risks in the process of its implementation. Based on the cash flow perspective, this paper establishes the project financial risk index system by analyzing the financing structure, profitability and solvency of PPP project. According to the financial risk situation of some PPP projects in the Yangtze River Delta region, the field research is conducted to obtain the accurate index data, and the weight of each index data is calculated by using rough sets and network analysis. Then, the grey relational analysis method is used to construct the risk sequence early-warning model of PPP project, so as to timely warn the possible financial risks and ensure the smooth operation of the project.

Key words: PPP, Financial Risk Early Warning, Rough Sets, ANP, GRAP

摘要： PPP项目具有参与主体多、沉没成本高、建设周期长等特点,因此在实施过程中不可避免地存在诸多风险源。本文基于财务现金流视角,通过对PPP项目融资结构、盈利能力、清偿能力的分析,构建项目财务风险评价指标体系,并针对长三角地区PPP项目财务风险状况进行实地调研,获取相关财务指标数据,综合运用粗糙集和网络层次分析法计算出各指标数据的权重值,进而运用灰色关联分析法集成PPP项目财务“风险序”预警模型,以期对项目可能出现的财务风险进行预警,确保项目平稳运营。

关键词: PPP, 财务风险预警, 粗糙集, 网络层次分析, 灰色关联分析