Management Tone Dispersion and its Impact on Analyst Optimism Bias ——MD&A Text Analysis on A-Share Listed Companies in Manufacturing Industry

Abstract

Abstract: Based on non-financial information and written from the perspective of managements, Management Discussion and Analysis(MD&A), which reviews the past performance of a company and predict its future performance, is regarded as the“heart and soul”of listed company's financial report. It has both reliability and relativity. However, unlike the numerical information in the annual report, which requires strict auditing procedure, narrative information in MD&A may be strategically arranged by managements to mislead the market. This paper uses group empirical study method to investigate the MD&A of listed companies from 2010 to 2014. It is found that companies with different performance tend to adopt different way of management tone dispersion, and that the way of management tone dispersion will change the attitude of analysts.

Key words: Tone Dispersion, Text Analysis, Analyst Optimism Bias, Company Performance, MD&A

摘要： 管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)是上市公司财务报告内容的“心脏和灵魂”,但不同于经过严格审计的数字信息,以文字信息为主的MD&A可能会给管理者一些策略性披露的空间,以达到误导市场情绪的目的。本文通过研究2010～2014年间A股上市公司的MD&A样本,检验了管理层语调离差策略及其对分析师预测的影响,通过对不同水平的公司业绩进行分组回归,发现较差业绩的公司会策略性地安排管理层语调词的分布,且这种策略性的文字安排对分析师预测乐观度有显著影响。

关键词: 语调离差, 文本分析, 分析师预测乐观度, 公司业绩, MD&A

CLC Number:

F230

ZHU Zhaohui, BAO Yanna, XU Wenhan. Management Tone Dispersion and its Impact on Analyst Optimism Bias ——MD&A Text Analysis on A-Share Listed Companies in Manufacturing Industry[J]. , 2018, 34(2): 39-46.

朱朝晖, 包燕娜, 许文瀚. 管理层语调离差策略及其对分析师预测乐观度影响——基于A股制造业上市公司MD&A文本分析公共选择理论下的税收成本与社会契约形式转变[J]. 财经论丛, 2018, 34(2): 39-46.

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