Abstract: “Universal two children” policy, as an important step to adjust and improve the fertility policy, will have a profound impact on both the economy and the society of China. This paper analyzes the impact of “Universal two Children” policy on demographic structure change, the economic development level and speed. The results show that this policy will significantly improve the child dependency ratio, but the proportion of working-age population will not improve as a result. Besides, it will alleviate the degree of aging, but it can't change the trend of rapid aging. Since the policy improves the child dependency ratio, but does not create a new “demographic dividend”, it does harm to the economic development level within a certain period.

Key words: “Universal Two Children”, Child Dependency Ratio, Proportion of Working-age Population, Old Dependency Ratio, Economic Development

摘要： 本文实证分析“全面二孩”政策的实施对人口年龄结构的影响及由此带来的经济发展水平和增长速度的影响。研究结果表明,“全面二孩”政策的实施使少儿抚养比显著提高,劳动年龄人口占比不会上升,老龄化程度得到一定减轻,但无法改变人口迅速老龄化的总趋势。该政策的实施尽管显著提高了少儿抚养比,但并没有创造出新的“人口红利”,因而该政策在一定时期内对经济发展水平产生一定的负面影响。

关键词: “全面二孩”, 少儿抚养比, 劳动年龄人口占比, 老年抚养比