Abstract: Based on the synthetic control methods and the monthly panel data related to the commercial housing prices from 32 cities from April 2009 to December 2014, this paper analyzes the effects and the sensitivity of property tax and regulatory policy in pilot cities like Shanghai and Chongqing from the perspective of counterfactuals. The results show that the effect of policies varies from region to region. Shanghai has higher sensitivity to property tax and regulation policy and the effects of policies are obvious there. But the price rebound of its commercial housing is faster and more powerful after the policies have been adopted for some time. However, Chongqing has lower sensitivity and the property tax and regulatory policies do not have significant effects there . Therefore, this paper puts forwards the following suggestions: the central government should take local conditions different cities into consideration when issuing new policies; the local governments should effectively manage and control the land, the present housing and reduce housing stocks; the government should implement the affordable housing construction and housing application system; and the government should develop the community old-age care associated with intelligent old-age care to improve housing utilization.

Key words: Property Tax, Macroscopical Policy, The Commercial Housing Price, Synthetic Control Methods

摘要： 本文基于合成控制法,从反事实的角度,对我国32个城市的2009年4月以来的与房价相关的月度面板数据,结合上海重庆试点城市运用房产税调控政策的效果及敏感度问题进行研究。研究发现:房产税调控政策对不同区域的房价影响不同,如政策对上海市的房价影响效果较明显,上海对政策的敏感度高,但政策过后其房价上升更快;政策对重庆市的房价影响效果不明显,重庆市对政策的敏感度低。因此,提出建议:政策应因地制宜;对关系国计民生的土地及现有住房进行管控,降低存量房;实施保障房建设及住房申请制间接影响房价;将智慧养老与社区养老相结合,提高住房的利用率。

关键词: 房产税, 宏观政策, 房价, 合成控制法