Abstract: The article concludes that the transfer of capital elements to the west deviates from the tranfer trend of environmental capital elements and economic gravity in contemporary China. The inland areas, especially the northeastern areas do not pay enough attention to the environmental protection, resulting in high carbon emissions and slow economic growth. With the help of the threshold model,this study finds that the economic growth is related to the environmental input and there is an inverted U-shape relationship between the environmental input and carbon emissions, so in the short term the environmental input can be controlled within the optimal investment range, which can not only stabilize the economic growth, but also control the carbon emissions effectively. According to estimate of the gray system, the goal of carbon emission reduction in 2030 cannot be achieved. Thus in the long term, some adjustments should be made through the promotion of green technology, the development of the recycling economy and the construction a green financial system.

Key words: Environmental Investment, Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, Threshold Model

摘要： 本文采用重力模型和泰尔指数研究得出我国资本要素向西转移轨迹与环境资本要素、经济重心的转移轨迹相背离的结论,认为内陆地区特别是东北地区对环境投入的重视不足,导致区域碳排放量过高,经济增速放缓。而通过门槛模型的研究发现我国经济增速伴随环境投入的增加呈下降趋势,且环境投入与碳排放之间存在倒U型关系,短期可将环境投入控制在最优投入区间内,既能将经济增速稳定在合理区间,也能有效控制碳排放。根据灰色系统预测,在当前技术条件下,2030年我国无法达到降低碳排放强度的目标,长期来看需通过推广绿色技术、发展循环经济和构建绿色金融体系三方面进行调整。

关键词: 环境投入, 经济增长, 碳排放, 门槛模型