Abstract: Since the 2008 financial crisis, China's macro leverage has risen rapidly. Many scholars think that high leverage may increase the financial risk, and even lead to financial crisis. Based on the national balance sheet theory,this paper introduces financial factors into the Solow growth model to study the evolution path of the macro leverage and the influence of the monetary policy on the macro leverage. We find that a country's macro leverage has its own time trend, and the monetary policy will reverse the macro leverage from its trend. This suggests that China should not set atarget macro leverage and should not deleverage by atight monetary policy.

Key words: Macro Leverage, Capital-output Ratio, Monetary Policy

摘要： 2008年金融危机以来,我国宏观杠杆率迅速上升。不少学者认为过高的杠杆率可能增加金融风险,甚至引发金融危机。本文通过国家资产负债表的思想在索洛增长模型中引入金融因素,以研究宏观杠杆率的演化路径和货币政策对宏观杠杆率的影响。结果发现,一国宏观杠杆率有着自己的时间趋势,而货币政策会使得宏观杠杆率反向偏离其趋势。研究结论表明不宜随意确定目标宏观杠杆率,也不应通过紧缩货币来达到降杠杆的目的。

关键词: 宏观杠杆率, 资本产出比, 货币政策