Abstract: This paper takes the promulgation and implementation of China's Food Safety Act in 2009 as a policy changed point, and then evaluates the impact of the social policy based on the regression synthetic control method. There are other countries whose food safety regulation levels are similar to China's in the control group. This paper estimates the impact of the Food Safety Act in the long-term and short-term foodborne illness and food poisoning in China if it had been implemented earlier. It is found that the deterrent force of the Food Safety Act only effective in the short-term. The number of food poisoning incidents has decreased in the short term. However, both the number of food poisoning incidents and the number of foodborne illnesses have increased in the long-term. This shows that it is of urgent need to improve the long-term effectiveness of the food safety act. First of all, the technical standards of food safety should be improved. And the process of negotiation should involve multiple participants, and the interests of enterprises and consumers should be well coordinated. Lastly, the higher standards should be supplemented by high costs of law-breaking to form a long-term credible threat to food enterprises. All these measures, in combination with the improvement of individual healthy eating habits on the part of consumers, will surely enhance the long-term national health level.

Key words: Food Safety Regulation, Policy Implementation Effect, Income Assessment

摘要： 本文以2009年《食品安全法》的颁布实施为政策冲击时点,构建基于回归合成控制法的政策效果评估模型,以食品安全规制水平相当的其他相关国家为对照组,推估《食品安全法》更早得以制定实施的话,它对我国长短期食源性疾病和食物中毒状况的影响。研究结果显示,法律的威慑力仅在短期有效,短期内食物中毒事件有所减少,但长期来看,无论食物中毒事件还是食源性疾病暴发都有增无减,说明亟需提高法律规制的长期有效性。一方面,提高食品安全的技术标准,保证食品安全标准制定参与主体多元化,协调企业与消费者的多方利益诉求;另一方面,食品安全标准提高后辅以高昂的违法成本,以形成对食品生产企业长期可置信的威胁,配合消费者个体卫生和饮食习惯的改进,不断增进国民的长期健康水平。

关键词: 食品安全规制, 政策执行效果, 收益评估