The Success of Performance Comparison and Overconfidence of Managers

Abstract

Abstract: Self-attribution drives managers to attribute past success more to their own ability, which leads to the psychological bias of overconfidence. Based on the theory of social comparison, this paper explores the relationship between outward-looking inter-firm performance comparison and managers' overconfidence. Taking the listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2007 to 2016 as the research samples, this paper finds that success in the performance comparison based on net profit promotes the overconfidence of managers, but the effect of performance success only exists in the upward comparison and parallel comparison. In the downward comparison, the effect of performance success only exists when the internal self-comparison fails. In addition, in parallel comparison, managers' power plays a positive moderating role in the success of firm performance comparison, while the moderating role of the power does not exist in the upward comparison. The conclusion of this paper is conducivel to further exploration of the influence mechanism of the overconfidence psychological bias.

Key words: Social Comparison Theory, Performance Comparison, Overconfidence, Managerial Power

摘要： “自我归因”驱使管理者将过往成功更多的归结为自身能力,进而导致其产生过度自信的心理偏差。本文基于社会比较理论,探索企业间业绩比较与管理者过度自信的关系。以2007~2016年沪深两市A股上市公司为样本,发现业绩比较胜出促进了管理者过度自信,且这一作用仅存在于上行比较和平行比较。而在下行比较中,业绩胜出的作用仅当企业内部自我比较失败时存在;此外,在平行比较中,管理者权力对业绩比较胜出与管理者过度自信起到正向调节作用,而权力的调节作用不存在于上行比较中。本文研究结论有助于进一步探索过度自信心理偏差黑箱及其影响作用机理。

关键词: 社会比较理论, 企业业绩比较, 过度自信, 管理者权力

CLC Number:

F272

LIU Bai, JU Tao. The Success of Performance Comparison and Overconfidence of Managers[J]. , 2020, 36(1): 65-74.

刘柏, 琚涛. 企业业绩比较胜出与管理者过度自信[J]. 财经论丛, 2020, 36(1): 65-74.

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