Research on Local Government Debt Scale

Abstract

Abstract: Using fiscal revenue forecast data, land transfer revenue budget, GDP forecast data and the current debt balance maturity structure as input-variables, liquidity constraints and debt risk indicator constraints as constraints, this paper constructs a micro-cash flow model with genetic algorithm to estimate the range of the future overall debt scale and form a portfolio of bond issuance strategies with different maturities. The empirical study finds that the micro-cash flow model reasonably promotes the local government to plan the scale of borrowing under the constraint conditions and effectively enhances the debt management of the local government.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Debt Scale, Cash Flow Model, Genetic Algorithm

摘要： 本文以财政收入预测数据、土地出让收入预算、GDP预测数据、当前债务余额期限结构为输入变量,流动性约束和债务风险指标约束为约束条件,构建出以遗传算法为核心的微观现金流模型以估算未来总体举债规模区间,并形成不同期限的发债策略组合。实证结果表明,该微观现金流模型有助于地方政府在约束条件下合理规划举债规模,从而帮助地方政府有效地进行债务管理。

关键词: 地方政府债务, 举债规模, 现金流模型, 遗传算法

CLC Number:

F812

LIN Saiyan. Research on Local Government Debt Scale[J]. , 2020, 36(12): 33-39.

林赛燕. 地方政府举债规模研究[J]. 财经论丛, 2020, 36(12): 33-39.

References

[1] Jeong, S. H.Does the Size of Local Government Debt Affect the Level of Debt of Off-budget Entities? The Case of Local Government in Korea[J]. International Review of Administrative Sciences,2020, 86(2):333-348.
[2] 龚强,王俊,贾坤.财政分权视角下的地方政府债务研究:一个综述[J]. 经济研究,2011,(7):144-156.
[3] 姜子叶,胡育蓉.财政分权、预算软约束与地方政府债务[J]. 金融研究,2016,(2):198-206.
[4] 毛捷,徐军伟.中国地方政府债务问题研究的现实基础——制度变迁、统计方法与重要事实[J]. 财政研究,2019,(1):3-23.
[5] 吴春杰.我国地方政府性债务风险及对策研究[J]. 财政部财政科学研究所,2013:1-62.
[6] 冀云阳,付文林,杨寓涵.土地融资、城市化失衡与地方债务风险[J]. 统计研究,2019,(7):91-103.
[7] 杨灿明,鲁元平.地方政府债务风险的现状、成因与防范对策研究[J]. 财政研究,2013,(11):58-60.
[8] 刁伟涛.中国地方政府债务透明度评估:2014-2015[J]. 上海财经大学学报,2017,(5): 80-90.
[9] 郭玉清.逾期债务、风险状况与中国财政安全[J]. 经济研究,2011,(8): 38-50.
[10] 邓晓兰,黄显林,张旭涛.公共债务财政可持续性与经济增长[J]. 财贸研究,2013,(4):83-90.
[11] Abiad A. Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises: A Markov-Switching Approach with Application to Southeast Asia[Z]. International Monetary Fund Working Paper,2003.
[12] 王妙如.我国地方政府债发行规模适度性分析[D]. 上海:上海交通大学硕士学位论文,2012.
[13] 陈丹.地方政府债券的信用风险度量及发债规模研究[J]. 金融经济,2013,(20):85-87.
[14] 谭庆刚,戚萍.天津市地方政府债券的信用风险度量和发债规模研究[M]. 天津:天津市社会科学界第九届学术年会优秀论文集(中),2013.348-355.
[15] 韩立岩,郑承利,罗雯,杨哲彬.中国市政债券信用风险与发债规模研究[J]. 金融研究,2003,(2):85-94.
[16] Polackova B.H., Shatalov S., Zlaoui L. Managing Fiscal Risk in Bulgaria[J]. The World Bank,2000.
[17] Dafflon B. Managing Local Public Debt in Transition Countries: An Issue of Self-control[J]. Financial Accountability and Management,2009,(25):277-366.
[18] 王璐,汪翀.利用尾部条件期望方法实现非寿险公司的现金流匹配[J]. 经济研究导刊,2010,(7):125-127.
[19] 王周伟,王衡,敬志勇.城镇化进程中地方政府性债务限额设定研究[J]. 山西财经大学学报,2015,(1):24-36.
[20] Yu L., Wang S., Wen F., Lai K.K. Genetic Algorithm-based Multi-criteria Project Portfolio Selection[J]. Annals of Operations Research,2012,197(1):71-86.
[21] Fernandeza E., Lopezb E., Mazcorroc G., Olmedod R., Coelloe C.A. Application of the Non-outranked Sorting Genetic Algorithm to Public Project Portfolio Selection[J]. Information Sciences, 2013, 228(4):131-149.
[22] 孙靖,熊岩,张恒,刘志平.多期证券投资组合问题的区间多目标规划求解方法[J]. 控制与决策,2020,(3):645-650.