Abstract: Based on the annual panel data of 33 provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from 2003 to 2015, this paper uses the synthetic control method to examines the emission reduction effects in Hubei and Guangdong pilot provinces in terms of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption and economic development. The results show that the implementation of the low-carbon pilot province policy in 2010 has a significant impact on the emission reduction effect in Guangdong province, but the impact on the emission reduction effect in Hubei province is not significant. However, the carbon emission trading system implemented in 2012 has reduced the carbon emission in Hubei province, and the emission reduction effect of Guangdong provinceis camparatively better after the implementation of this policy. At the same time, the economic development level of Hubei province has improved to some extent after the implementation of the two policies, but the economic development level of Guangdong province has maintained a stable trend after the implementation of the two policies. The reasons are mainly related to the strategic layout of the low-carbon economy and the effect of the policy implementation in the two provinces. In light of the problems in the formulation and implementation of the economic policies regarding the carbon emission reduction in the pilot provinces, this paper proposes that the policy system be perfected after the national carbon market is unified.

Key words: Carbon Emission Trading, Policy Effects, Environmental Porter Hypothesis, Synthetic Control, Legal Positivism

摘要： 本文运用合成控制法,选取全国33个省(市、自治区)的2003~2015年度面板数据,分别从CO₂排放量、能源消费量及经济发展等方面对湖北和广东两个试点省份减排效果进行检视。研究结果表明,2010年实施低碳试点省份政策对广东的减排效果影响明显,但对湖北的减排效果影响并不显著。2012年实施的碳排放权交易制度使湖北的减排量下降,广东在此政策实施后减排效果更佳。同时,湖北在两种政策实施后经济发展水平略有提升,但广东的经济发展水平依旧保持平稳态势,其原因可能与两地的低碳经济战略布局和政策执行效果具有较大关系。结合试点省份的碳减排经济政策制定及执行中存在的问题,我们提出完善全国统一碳市场后的政策体系。

关键词: 碳排放权交易, 政策效果, 低碳省份试点, 合成控制法, 法律实证学