Abstract: This paper uses CGSS data to study the impact of the industrial upgrading on the job mobility. The industrial upgrading has significantly reduced the number of job changes, and this effect has a certain lag. The industrial upgrading mainly reduces the frequency of resigning instead of being fired. This shows that the impact of the industrial upgrading on the job mobility is mainly achieved by changing the expectations of the labor force for future employment, rather than the structural unemployment caused by the direct impact of industrial upgrading on the job market. Furthermore, this paper finds that this impact of the industrial upgrading is mainly reflected in the labor force with low-level human capital, and it will have a differentiated impact on job changes with the different size of the employment market and the freedom of the employment market. This study reveals the possible negative impacts of the industrial upgrading on the job market and its transmission mechanism, and provides inspiration and policy basis for rational planning of the industrial upgrading.

Key words: Industrial Upgrading, Job Changes, Human Capital, Job Matching

摘要： 本文利用CGSS数据研究产业升级对劳动力工作转换的影响,发现产业升级显著降低劳动力工作转换的次数,且这种影响存在滞后性。产业升级主要降低劳动力主动转换工作的次数,但不影响被动转换工作的次数,说明产业升级对工作流动的影响主要通过改变劳动力对未来就业的预期,而非对就业市场的直接冲击造成的结构性失业。进一步地,该影响主要体现在人力资本水平较低的劳动力身上,并随着就业市场规模及自由度的变化而对工作转换产生差异化的影响。本文的研究揭示产业升级对就业市场可能的负面影响及其传导途径,为合理规划产业升级提供有益启示和政策依据。

关键词: 产业升级, 工作转换, 人力资本, 就业匹配