Abstract: How to promote a steady development in the economically developed areas at the new stahe of reform is a proposition that needs to be considered urgently at present and in the years to come. In order to understand the risk status of the land mortgage financing and scientifically supervise it, this paper conducts a case study of Area X in City S by using the entropy method to establish a risk assessment model to make an empirical analysis from the following four aspects: market characteristics, mortgage status, credit factors and the policy and legal factors. The results show that the risk level of the land mortgage financing in the study area fluctuates from year to year, but the overall trend is on the decrease, and gradually returns to stability. The better the policy and the legal environment of financing, the faster the risk level decreases. The risk level fluctuation of market characteristics ranks the second. The risk of the credit factors is gradually becoming stable, but the risk of the mortgage status fluctuates greatly. Based on the above findings, the paper puts forward some suggestions including improving the government management mechanism, standardizing the behavior of the financing platform, strengthening the risk control of the bank and so on.

Key words: Land Mortgage Financing, Risk of Land Mortgage Financing, Entropy Value Method, Risk Assessment

摘要： 经济发达地区土地融资如何持续稳步发展,是当前和今后一个时期亟待思考的命题。为了解其土地抵押融资风险状况,科学监管土地抵押融资,本文选取S市X区为个案,运用熵值法建立风险评估模型,从市场特征、抵押状况、信用因素、政策法律因素4个方面进行实证分析。研究结果表明:研究区土地抵押融资风险程度每年都有起伏,但总体呈下降趋势,并逐渐回归稳定;融资的政策法律环境愈发完善,风险程度降低速度最快,市场特征风险程度波动排在第二位,信用因素风险渐渐平稳,抵押状况风险起伏较大。在此基础上,提出了完善政府管理机制、规范融资平台行为、加强银行风险控制等对策建议。

关键词: 土地抵押融资风险, 熵值法, 风险评估