Abstract: Based on the micro survey data of Chinese Household Income Project Survey (CHIP) database, this paper first uses the pseudo poisson maximum likelihood to estimate the shock effect of liquidity preference on peasant household welfare and then constructs the dose-response function model of generalized propensity score matching method to analyze the influence effect of change in the number of liquidity preference on peasant household welfare. Findings of the empirical research are as follows: (1)The liquidity preference has a positive effect on household disposable income, household consumption expenditure and household operating assets. And when the level of liquidity preference increases, the liquidity preference has a negative effect on household disposable income, household consumption expenditure and household operating assets, that is, there is an inverted “U” relationship between liquidity preference and peasant household welfare, which indicates that appropriate liquidity preference is helpful to improve the peasant household welfare level, but when the liquidity preference is too high, it will inhibit the improvement of peasant household welfare level. This phenomenon reveals that optimizing the peasant household asset structure and regulating the liquidity preference level is an effective way to improve the peasant household welfare level. (2)After overcoming the sample selection error matching, in addition to the negative impact of liquidity preference on peasant household operating assets, it is found that as the proportion of liquidity preferences continues to rise, the impact effect of liquidity preference on peasant household disposable income and household consumption expenditure changes from positive to negative, which further shows that reducing the proportion of liquidity preference and optimizing the allocation of peasant household financial assets are beneficial to the improvement of the peasant household welfare.

Key words: Liquidity Preference, Peasant Household Welfare, Shock Effect, Pseudo Poisson Maximum Likelihood, Dose-response Function

摘要： 基于CHIP数据库微观调研数据,本研究在运用泊松伪极大似然估计法(PPML)估计流动性偏好对农户家庭福利冲击效应的基础上,进一步构建广义倾向得分匹配法的剂量反应函数模型,考察了流动性偏好的动态变化对农户家庭福利的影响效应。实证研究发现:(1)流动性偏好先是对农户家庭可支配收入、家庭生活消费支出、家庭经营性资产有正向影响,当流动性偏好水平上升时,对农户家庭可支配收入、家庭生活消费支出、家庭经营性资产均产生负向影响,即流动性偏好与农户家庭福利存在倒“U”型关系,表明适当的流动性偏好有助于提升家庭福利水平,但当流动性偏好过高时,反而会抑制农户家庭福利水平的改进。该现象揭示出优化家庭资产结构、调节流动性偏好水平是农户家庭福利改善的有效路径。(2)克服样本自选择偏误匹配分析后,除流动性偏好始终对农户家庭经营性资产有负向冲击效应外,随着流动性偏好的不断上升,其对农户家庭可支配收入与家庭生活消费支出的冲击效应均由正向转为负向,进一步表明降低流动性偏好比重、优化配置家庭金融资产有利于改善农户家庭福利。

关键词: 流动性偏好, 农户家庭福利, 冲击效应, 泊松伪极大似然估计法, 剂量反应函数