Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Outward Foreign Direct Investment

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the fiscal policy uncertainty index constructed by Huang and Luk, this paper uses the panel data of China and 88 countries and regions from 2003 to 2018 to study the impact of the fiscal policy uncertainty on the outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). The results are as follows: (1) There is a significant positive correlation between China's fiscal policy uncertainty and OFDI; (2)Taking the financial crisis into account, China's fiscal policy uncertainty has a significant negative influence on OFDI before the financial crisis but a significant positive effect on OFDI after the financial crisis; (3) Compared with the developing countries, China's fiscal policy uncertainty has a greater promotion effect on OFDI in the developed countries. This paper provides a new prospective for exploring the factors influencing OFDI. In order to improve the quality of OFDI and reduce the unwise OFDI, Chinese government should not only keep its fiscal policy stable and durative, but also provide different guidance for the OFDI in different countries so as to improve the quality of OFDI.

Key words: Fiscal Policy Uncertainty, Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Panel Data Model

摘要： 基于Huang和Luk构建的财政政策不确定性指数,本文采用2003~2018年中国与88个国家的面板数据检验了财政政策不确定性与对外直接投资(OFDI)的相关关系。结果显示:(1)中国财政政策不确定性对OFDI有显著正向影响;(2)金融危机前,中国财政政策不确定性对OFDI呈现出显著抑制作用,危机后呈现出显著促进作用;(3)相比发展中国家,中国财政政策不确定性对在发达国家的OFDI促进作用更大,且OFDI在发达国家更关注经济增长速度,在发展中国家更关注能源禀赋和制度稳定因素。这一研究结果为探索中国OFDI飞速发展提供了新的研究视角,也启示中国政府应尽可能保证财政政策的稳定性与持续性,防止因规避国内财政政策不确定性风险造成盲目对外投资,同时还需对不同地区的OFDI进行差异化引导,提升中国OFDI的质量。

关键词: 财政政策不确定性, 对外直接投资, 面板数据模型

CLC Number:

CHEN Dan, LI Youshu. Fiscal Policy Uncertainty and Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. , 2021, 37(6): 24-32.

陈丹, 李优树. 财政政策不确定性与对外直接投资[J]. 财经论丛, 2021, 37(6): 24-32.

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