Abstract: With the gradual aggravation of the population aging, the long-term care of the disabled elderly has attracted great attention from the government and the whole society. By investigating the current welfare policies for the elderly and disabled and the corresponding various subsidies, this paper has the following findings. (1) The government's intensive financial resources can reduce the financial pressure of long-term care allowance to a large extent; (2) In 2050, there will be 1927100 disabled elderly people in Zhejiang Province, including 678000 poor disabled elderly people; (3) The cost of long-term care for the disabled elderly increased year by year and the care allowance covering this group will be raised to 44229. 1542 million yuan in 2050; (4) In 2050, the ratio of the intensive financial resources to the long-term care for the poor disabled elderly will be 18.04%. This paper finally suggests that the government should coordinate financial funds, integrate endowment resources and expand pilot projects of long-term care insurance.

Key words: Population Aging, The Poor Disable Elder, Long-term Care Allowance, Financial Input

摘要： 探索建立面向贫困失能老年人的长期护理津贴的救助制度是“弱有所扶”理念下政府公共财政责任的体现。本文以浙江省为例,结合目前老年人和残疾人福利补贴政策,在整合现有财政投入的多种老年津贴的前提下,研究发现:(1)集约财政资源能够在较大程度上减轻长期护理津贴的财政压力;(2)2050年浙江省失能老年人口192.71万人,其中贫困失能老人67.80万人;(3)贫困失能老年人的长期护理服务费用逐年攀升,2050年覆盖该群体的护理津贴需财政投入4422915.42万元;(4)2050年多津贴整合可集约财政资金18.04%。为此,从统筹财政资金、整合养老资源以及扩大长期护理保险试点等方面提出一些政策思考。

关键词: 人口老龄化, 贫困失能老年人, 长期护理津贴, 财政投入