Abstract: The Budget Law, seen as the “leading law” in the field of finance and taxation, was overhauled for the first time in nearly two decades in 2014. The revised Budget Law of the People's Republic of China (New Budget Law) came into effect on January 1, 2015. The new budget law has achieved remarkable results in reforming soft budget constraints and fiscal transparency, which have long been regarded as institutional hotbeds for local governments to rely on the land finance revenue. Therefore, the implementation of the new budget law will greatly affect the local government's land finance dependence. The new budget law is the basic legal system in the financial field, and land finance is the main sources of fiscal revenue for local governments. Analyzing the impact of the new budget law on the local government's land finance dependence can not only enrich the relevant theories on the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and the formation mechanism of land finance dependence, but also provides important practical guiding significance for further optimizing land finance and accelerating the establishment of a modern financial system.
Based on the existing research and the current system, this study first constructs a theoretical framework to analyze the impact of the new budgetlaw on the local government's land finance dependence by hardening the soft budget constraints and increasing fiscal transparency; Secondly, using the panel data of 26 provincial-level administrative regions from 2009 to 2018 and 260 prefecture-level cities from 2012 to 2018, it builds a dynamic panel data model and a DID model to analyze the impact of the new budget law on local governments' land finance dependence, and adopts a variety of methods to construct soft budget constraints and fiscal transparency indicators to examine the impact path of soft budget constraints and fiscal transparency. Finally, Counter Factual Test, SRD and other methods are used to verify the robustness of the regression results. The main research conclusions are as follows: First, the new budget law has a significant negative impact on the local government's land finance dependence. Second, after the implementation of the new budget law, with the gradual hardening of soft budget constraints, the local government's dependence on land finance has decreased. Third, after the implementation of the new budget law, with the increase of fiscal transparency, the local government's dependence on land finance has decreased.
In the light of the large scaleand the wide socio-economic influence of the land finance revenue, it is necessary to focus on the optimization and reform of land finance in the process of building a modern financial system. In view of this, based on the research conclusions and the current system in China, this research puts forward the following three policy suggestions with focus on the construction of a modern financial system and especially from the perspective of land finance optimization: First of all, strengthening the implementation of the new budget law and reducing the dependence on land finance will help to establish a modern financial system in China. Secondly, with the strengthening of budget constraints and the increase of fiscal transparency, the space of land finance has been compressed, and it is necessary to consider how to give local governments more financial autonomy. Finally, with the strengthening of budget constraints and the increase of fiscal transparency, land finance is gradually standardized and transparent, and it is necessary to consider how to scientifically plan and budget the land finance revenue and expenditure.

Key words: New Budget Law, Soft Budget Constraints, Fiscal Transparency, Land Finance Dependence

摘要： 本文利用26个省级行政区和260个地级市的面板数据,探究了2014年修正后的预算法对地方政府土地财政依赖的影响,并分别分析预算软约束与财政透明度的影响路径。结果表明,新预算法对地方政府土地财政依赖有显著负向影响:2015年后,随着预算约束硬化、财政透明度增加,地方政府的土地财政依赖度逐渐下降。本研究丰富了财税体制改革和土地财政依赖形成机制相关理论,对规范土地财政管理、完善财税体制改革、加快建立现代财政制度具有重要现实指导意义。

关键词: 新预算法, 预算软约束, 财政透明度, 土地财政依赖