Abstract: In recent years, China's internal and external risks and challenges are increasing. The economy is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. Anti-cyclical tax and fee reduction policies have continued to increase, creating a huge gap in fiscal revenue and expenditure. The current total tax and fee reduction policy cannot be sustained for a long time. Thus, how to transition from total tax and fee reduction from total tax and fee reduction to structural one has important research value.
By constructing the TANK-DSGE model including the social security department, this paper simulates three different economic shocks of consumption shock, investment shock and total factor shock in the general equilibrium framework, and compares and analyzes the simulation results of 14 structural tax reduction and fee reduction rules. At the same time, the fluctuations of output and debt ratio variables are used to construct an index evaluation system, and the characteristics and changes of the tax reduction and fee reduction rules are further analyzed on the basis of finding the optimal tax reduction and fee reduction rules.
The results show that: (1) Under the pressure of the economy caused by different economic shocks, the optimal rules for structural tax reduction and fee reduction are different. (2)Under consumption shocks, it is better for the government to choose a fiscal rule that includes raising consumption tax and reducing labor tax, capital tax and social security premiums. (3)Under investment shocks, it is better for the government to choose fiscal rules that include raising consumption tax and reducing labor tax and capital tax. (4)Under the impact of all factors, it is better for the government to choose a fiscal rule that includes a reduction in consumption tax and social security premiums and an increase in labor tax and capital tax.
Finally, relevant policy recommendations are made based on the conclusions. By reducing the policy target variable volatility, this paper evaluates "increase" structural tax and fee reduction policy combination. That is, the evaluation index is not a single stimulus output or single response to the output decline. In view of this, this paper obtains some policy suggestions.

Key words: Structureal Tax Reducfion and Fec Reduction, Optimal Rwle, TANK-DSGE Model

摘要： 本文通过构建TANK-DSGE模型,模拟了消费冲击、投资冲击和全要素冲击三种不同的经济冲击下14种结构性减税降费规则对经济的影响。同时,本文利用产出和负债率变量的波动情况构建指标评价体系,在分析最优减税降费规则的基础上对其特征与变化规律进行进一步分析。结果表明,不同经济冲击下,结构性减税降费最优规则不同:消费冲击下,结构性减税降费最优规则为提高消费税,降低劳动税、资本税和社保费;投资冲击下,结构性减税降费最优规则为提高消费税,降低劳动税、资本税;全要素冲击下,结构性减税降费最优规则是降低消费税和社保费,提高劳动税和资本税。最后,基于以上结论,本文提出相关政策建议。

关键词: 结构性减税降费, 最优规则, TANK-DSGE模型