Abstract: The selection and implementation of national development goals and economic policies are always carried out at a specific stage of development. From the stage of manufacturing catch-up to innovation leading, China's economic development presents two main features. Firstly, policy makers always make strategic judgments based on the basic national conditions and combine the characteristics of the current stage with major policies. Secondly, the government consciously focuses on key areas, takes the initiative to direct production factors to key industries, and gives full play to the positive role of key industries in promoting national economic development. In the stage of manufacturing catching-up, the focus of China's manufacturing development is to solve the problem of “have or not”. Through the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, domestic products gradually enter the international market and participate in international competition. China has become a veritable “world factory”since the rapid development of manufacturing industry. In the development stage of pursuing quality frontier, the focus of China's manufacturing development has shifted from “have or not” to “good or not”. With the level of economic development improving, the requirement for the quality of industrial economy is getting higher.
China's economy has entered a new stage of development. The manufacturing industry under the guidance of the new development concept has been upgraded from technological innovation to scientific and technological innovation, and innovation leading has become the core of building a manufacturing giant. After the early accumulation of the manufacturing catch-up stage, the overall structure of China's manufacturing industry has shown a trend of transformation and upgrading from capital-intensive to technology-intensive, with new generation information such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, “Internet+”, and big data. Manufacturing intelligence plays a leading role in the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry. Knowledge and creativity are the key for manufacturing industry to achieve innovation leading. Knowledge and creativity are non-competitive, which can produce externalities and improve the welfare of social residents, and have a significant positive impact on the development of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, it is necessary to further tap the huge potential of China's population size, give full play to the advantages of China's super-large economy, and help China's manufacturing accelerate innovation in the new era.
This paper uses the data of listed companies in China's manufacturing industry from 2012 to 2018 and uses the method of propensity score matching and difference in difference (PSM-DID)to empirically find that the impact of key policies of Made in China 2025 on the total factor productivity of enterprises has experienced a change process from insignificant to gradually significant positive. In the third year after the implementation of the key policy, the positive effect is relatively significant and there is room for growth in the positive promotion of total factor productivity. The mechanism test results show that the mechanism of the key policy is to increase the output by promoting the improvement of the capital efficiency of enterprise, and finally lead to the total factor productivity growth. Using different methods to calculate total factor productivity and conduct a placebo test, the conclusions of this article are very robust. Heterogeneity analysis shows that high-tech enterprises are particularly affected by key industrial policies. Compared with passive innovation enterprises, the promotion effect of key policies on active innovation enterprises is better.
The above findings reveal that major policies play an important role in the national economy. The development strategy for China's manufacturing industry to achieve innovation leading in 2035 is to clarify key development directions, and support key areas to take the lead in making breakthroughs.

Key words: Innovation Leading, “Made in China 2025”Plan, Major Policy, Total Factor Productivity

摘要： 在讨论不同发展阶段制造强国内涵动态变化的基础上,本文使用2012—2018年中国制造业上市公司数据,发现《中国制造2025》的重点政策对企业全要素生产率的影响经历了不显著到逐渐显著为正的变化过程且仍存在增长空间,采用不同的方法计算企业全要素生产率及进行安慰剂检验后的结论非常稳健。进一步的异质性分析结果显示,重点政策对高新技术企业的影响程度尤其明显,对主动创新企业的促进效果更好(相比于被动创新企业)。这一研究发现揭示重大政策在国民经济中的重要作用,面向2035年中国制造业实现创新引领的发展策略是:加强政府战略引领,通过实施重大政策有意识地引导扶持重点领域和关键环节率先突破,发挥重点行业对国民经济的引领和正向带动作用。

关键词: 创新引领, 中国制造2025, 重大政策, 全要素生产率