Abstract: With the “closure of the Hubei passageway” under the COVID-19 as the starting point, this paper investigates the impact of the temporary cut-off of the supply chain between Hubei and other provinces on the economic development of the provinces under the epidemic situation. The results of the study are as follows: The cut-off of Hubei's domestic supply chain makes the provinces which are closely related to Hubei's supply chain suffer greater economic decreases; The supply-side correlation and the direct supply chain in Hubei province have greater negative impact on the economy; From the aspect of mechanisms, the supply chain correlation between Hubei and other provinces will enhance the economic cycle linkage, which is the reason why those provinces with closer correlation with Hubei supply chain suffer great economic impact under the COVID-19. In particular, the commodity flow and the factor flow between Hubei and other provinces strengthen the linkage of the economic cycle.The research has important practical significance to promote the realization of smooth and stable domestic supply chain.

Key words: COVID-19, Domestic Supply Chain, Business Cycle Co-movement, Provinces Economy

摘要： 以新冠疫情期间“离鄂通道”关闭事件为切入点,本文考察湖北与各省的供应链关联短暂切断对各省经济冲击的影响。结果发现,湖北供应链切断使原来与湖北供应链关联越紧密的省份受到的经济冲击越大;从影响的差异性上看,湖北供应链的供给侧关联切断和直接供应链的切断对省域经济的负面影响更大;进一步的机制研究表明,各省与湖北供应链关联增强了它们之间的经济周期联动性,也造成与湖北供应链关联越紧密的省份遭受的经济冲击更大,尤其表现为各省与湖北的商品要素流动均强化了它们之间的经济周期联动。据此,本文的研究对推动实现国内供应链畅通和稳定具有重要的现实意义。

关键词: 新冠疫情, 国内供应链, 经济周期联动, 省域经济发展