Abstract: Based on panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China regions from 2008 to 2019 and the construction of common indicator framework from three dimensions of budget input, budget process and budget effects,this paper calculates the composite index of fiscal budget performance based on the Entropy method,empirically analyzes the multiple affect of fiscal autonomy and the level of government competition and other variables on the level of fiscal budget performance by the moment estimation method. The results show that: (1)During the sample study period, the level of fiscal budget performance composite index in China show a wave-like upward trend with obvious administrative unites cross section heterogeneity. The level of fiscal budget performance composite index show obvious regional heterogeneity in the western region,the central region and the eastern region, the evolution trends of three regions changed from opposite to similarity. (2)The subsystem of fiscal budget performance composite index shows different tendencies.It can be ranked from higher to lower: budget arrangement, economic benefits, ecological benefits, social benefits, budget execution. (3)Fiscal autonomy and the level of government competition have negative effects on fiscal budget performance,while the interaction between fiscal autonomy and the level of government competition has an limited influence on the promoting of fiscal budget performance level. (4)Among the critical control variables, per capita GDP, population density and finical-supporting population have an promoting impacts on fiscal budget performance level while the fiscal budget performance level of last year, urbanization level, industrial structure and tenure of government officials have inhibited impacts. Part of above control variables have obvious regional heterogeneity. The results of empirical analysis provide experience reference and policy recommendations to the realization of the integration of budget and performance management and the deeper promotion of comprehensive budget performance management in the new era.

Key words: Government Budget, Performance Evaluation, Entropy Method

摘要： 本文基于预算投入、过程和效果三维度共性指标体系和中国31省区市最新面板数据,运用熵值法测度财政预算绩效指数,通过矩估计实证检验财政自主度、政府竞争对财政预算绩效的多重影响效应。结果表明:样本考察期内,中国财政预算绩效综合指数总体呈“波浪式”上升趋势,区域异质性特征明显,东、中、西部三大地区演变趋势逐渐趋同,省际间截面差异较为显著;子系统综合指数大小次序为预算安排＞经济效益＞生态效益＞社会效益＞预算执行,且呈不同的变动趋势;财政自主度、政府竞争对财政预算绩效具有负向影响,二者间协同作用并未显著提升财政预算绩效水平;关键控制变量中,人均GDP、人口密度、财政供养人口对财政预算绩效水平的提升具有促进作用,上一年度财政预算绩效、城镇化水平、产业结构、政府官员任期对财政预算绩效具有抑制作用,部分控制变量的影响存在区域异质性。研究结论可为实现预算和绩效管理一体化、深入推进全面预算绩效管理提供经验参考和决策建议。

关键词: 政府预算, 绩效评价, 熵值法