Abstract: Effective fiscal policyarrangement is an important starting point for structural reform of financial supply side. Therefore, this paper empirically tests the impact of vertical fiscal imbalances and factor market distortions on financial volatilitybased on the provincial panel data from 2001 to 2019. The results of the study are as follows. It finds that the vertical fiscal imbalance has a significant positive role in promoting financial fluctuations. It also finds that the tax competition will strengthen the positive effect of vertical fiscal imbalance on financial fluctuation, while the promotion competition will weaken the positive effect. Further analysis finds that the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance on financial volatility has both a direct effect and an indirect effect of distortion through the factor (capital/labor) market, and in the indirect effect, the intermediary effect caused by labor factor market distortion is more significant. Finally, the policy implications are presented based on empirical conclusions.

Key words: Vertical Fiscal Imbalance, Local Government Competition, Factor Market Distortion, Financial Volatility

摘要： 有效的财政政策安排是实现金融供给侧结构性改革的重要抓手。为此,本文基于我国2001—2019年省级面板数据检验纵向财政失衡、要素市场扭曲对金融波动的影响。结果表明,纵向财政失衡会加剧金融波动,同时,税收竞争会强化纵向财政失衡对金融波动的影响,而晋升竞争会弱化该影响。在进一步分析中,本文发现纵向财政失衡对金融波动既存在直接影响,又存在通过要素(资本/劳动力)市场扭曲的间接作用,并且在间接作用中由劳动力要素市场扭曲所引发的中介效应表现得更为显著。最后,本文依据实证结论提出相关政策启示。

关键词: 纵向财政失衡, 地方政府竞争, 要素市场扭曲, 金融波动