Abstract: This paper first uses the panel data of 280 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2018 to construct the measurement index system of new and old driving force conversion, then applies the entropy method to calculate the transformation index of new and old driving force conversion, and finally adopts the difference in differences (DID) model to analyze the impact of the establishment of government-guided funds on the conversion of new and old driving forces in cities. It is found that the establishment of government-guided funds plays an obvious role in promoting the development of new and old driving force conversion. As time goes by, this boosting effect is gradually increasing and sustainable, and the policy effect is more significant in non-provincial capital cities. The government-guided funds can promote the transformation and development of old and new driving force conversion by boosting science and technology investment. Therefore, each local government should pay attention to the leverage effect and the certification effect of government-guided funds to continuously deepen the new and old driving force conversion. At the same time, it should set up government-guided funds to stimulate the internal motivation of new and old driving force conversion in the region, and ensure their withdrawal in a timely and appropriate manner.

Key words: Government-guided Funds, New and Old Driving Force Conversion, Difference in Differences Model, Prefecture-level City

摘要： 本文采用2008—2018年280个地级市的面板数据,构建了新旧动能转换衡量指标体系,利用熵值法对新旧动能转换指数进行测算,并运用双重差分法(DID)分析政府引导基金的设立对城市新旧动能转换水平的影响。研究发现:政府引导基金的设立对新旧动能转换发展具有明显的推动作用;随着时间的推移,其助推效果日益增强并具有可持续性,且在非省会城市政策效果更为明显;政府引导基金可以通过带动科技投入来促进新旧动能转换发展。为此,各地方政府应重视政府引导基金杠杆效应和认证效应的发挥,以持续深化新旧动能转换,同时要通过设立政府引导基金激发地区新旧动能转换的内生动力,并使其适时适当予以退出。

关键词: 政府引导基金, 新旧动能转换, 双重差分法, 地级市