Does ESG Performance Improve Analysts' Earnings Forecast Quality? Evidence from A-share Listed Corporations

Abstract

Abstract: This paper takes the Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies in China from 2010 to 2021 as samples to study the relationship between enterprises' ESG performance and the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. The results show that enterprises' ESG performance can significantly improve the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts. The mechanism test indicates that enterprises' ESG performance mainly improves analysts' earnings forecast quality by enhancing the company's information quality and reducing the company's operational risk. Further research shows that the impact of enterprises' ESG performance on the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts is more significant in enterprises with low media attention and tracked by non-star analysts. The research conclusions of this paper can not only contribute to enriching the relevant research on enterprises' ESG performance and the quality of analysts' earnings forecasts, but also provide some reference for regulators, listed companies and analysts on how to improve and use ESG information.

Key words: ESG Performance, Earnings Forecast Quality, Information Quality, Operational Risk

摘要： 本文以2010—2021年我国沪深A股上市公司为样本,考察企业ESG表现与分析师盈余预测质量的关系。研究发现,企业ESG表现能够显著提高分析师盈余预测质量。机制检验表明,企业ESG表现通过提高信息质量和降低经营风险,进而提高了分析师盈余预测质量。进一步分析发现,企业ESG表现对分析师盈余预测质量的积极作用在媒体关注度较低和非明星分析师预测的企业中更加显著。本文研究结论不仅有助于丰富企业ESG表现经济后果与分析师盈余预测质量影响因素相关文献,还能够为监管机构、上市公司和分析师如何完善与利用ESG信息提供一定的参考。

关键词: 企业ESG表现, 盈余预测质量, 信息质量, 经营风险

CLC Number:

F279

SUN Guangguo, CAO Siyu, AN Jiapeng. Does ESG Performance Improve Analysts' Earnings Forecast Quality? Evidence from A-share Listed Corporations[J]. Collected Essays on Finance and Economics, 2023, 39(5): 68-77.

孙光国, 曹思宇, 安家鹏. 企业ESG表现能提高分析师盈余预测质量吗——来自A股上市公司的经验证据[J]. 财经论丛, 2023, 39(5): 68-77.

References

[1]袁业虎, 熊笑涵. 上市公司ESG表现与企业绩效关系研究——基于媒体关注的调节作用 [J]. 江西社会科学, 2021, (10): 68-77.
[2]王波, 杨茂佳. ESG表现对企业价值的影响机制研究——来自我国A股上市公司的经验证据 [J]. 软科学, 2022, (6): 78-84.
[3]高杰英, 褚冬晓, 廉永辉, 等. ESG表现能改善企业投资效率吗? [J]. 证券市场导报, 2021, (11): 24-34, 72.
[4]席龙胜, 赵辉. 企业ESG表现影响盈余持续性的作用机理和数据检验[J]. 管理评论, 2022, (9): 313-326.
[5]Broadstock D. C., Chan K., Cheng L. T., Wang X. The Role of ESG Performance during Times of Financial Crisis: Evidence from COVID-19 in China [J]. Finance Research Letters, 2021, (38): 1-15.
[6]Pedersen L. H., Fitzgibbons S., Pomorski L. Responsible Investing: The ESG-efficient Frontier [J]. Journal of Financial Economics, 2021, 142(2): 572-597.
[7]周开国, 应千伟, 陈晓娴. 媒体关注度、分析师关注度与盈余预测准确度 [J]. 金融研究, 2014, (2): 139-152.
[8]Lang M. H., Lundholm R. J. Corporate Disclosure Policy and Analyst Behavior [J]. Accounting Review, 1996, 71(4): 467-492.
[9]Crifo P., Diaye M. A., Oueghlissi R. The Effect of Countries' ESG Ratings on Their Sovereign Borrowing Costs [J]. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2017, 66: 13-20.
[10]邱牧远, 殷红. 生态文明建设背景下企业ESG表现与融资成本 [J]. 数量经济技术经济研究, 2019, (3): 108-123.
[11]Byard, Shaw K. W. Corporate Disclosure Quality and Properties of Analysts' Information Environment [J]. Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance, 2003, 18(3): 355-378.
[12]方军雄. 我国上市公司信息披露透明度与证券分析师预测 [J]. 金融研究, 2007, (6): 136-148.
[13]Dhaliwal S., Radhakrishnan S., Tsang A., Yang Y. G. Nonfinancial Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy: International Evidence on Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosure [J]. Accounting Review, 2012, 87(3): 723-759.
[14]Muslu V., Mutlu S., Radhakrishnan S., Tsang A. Corporate Social Responsibility Report Narratives and Analyst Forecast Accuracy [J]. Journal of Business Ethics, 2019, 154(4): 1119-1142.
[15]胡军, 王甄, 陶莹, 等. 微博、信息披露与分析师盈余预测 [J]. 财经研究, 2016, (5): 66-76.
[16]李增福, 冯柳华. 企业ESG表现与商业信用获取 [J]. 财经研究, 2022, (12): 151-165.
[17]李井林, 阳镇, 陈劲, 等. ESG促进企业绩效的机制研究——基于企业创新的视角 [J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2021, (9): 71-89.
[18]王琳璘, 廉永辉, 董捷. ESG表现对企业价值的影响机制研究 [J]. 证券市场导报, 2022, (5): 23-34.
[19]Dhaliwal S., Li O. Z., Tsang A., Yang Y. G. Voluntary Nonfinancial Disclosure and the Cost of Equity Capital: The Initiation of Corporate Social Responsibility Reporting [J]. Accounting Review, 2011, 86(1): 59-100.
[20]KimY., Park M. S., Wier B. Is Earnings Quality Associated with Corporate Social Responsibility? [J]. Accounting Review, 2012, 87(3): 761-796.
[21]周方召, 潘婉颖, 付辉. 上市公司ESG责任表现与机构投资者持股偏好——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据 [J]. 科学决策, 2020, (11): 15-41.
[22]吴锡皓, 胡国柳. 不确定性、会计稳健性与分析师盈余预测 [J]. 会计研究, 2015, (9): 27-34, 96.
[23]施先旺, 梁箫, 刘拯. 企业社会责任履行与分析师预测精准度 [J]. 当代经济管理, 2015, (10): 31-37.
[24]信春华, 郝晓露, 程璐. “信息”抑或“噪声”: 企业数字化转型与分析师预测质量 [J]. 上海金融, 2022, (4): 41-58.
[25]褚剑, 秦璇, 方军雄. 中国式融资融券制度安排与分析师盈利预测乐观偏差 [J]. 管理世界, 2019, (1): 151-166, 228.
[26]江媛, 王治. 董事会报告可读性、制度环境与分析师预测——来自我国上市公司的经验证据 [J]. 财经理论与实践, 2019, (3): 88-93.
[27]王谨乐, 霍达, 史永东, 等. 股价信息含量能够提升分析师预测质量吗? [J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2021, (8): 1974-1989.
[28]王玉涛, 王彦超. 业绩预告信息对分析师预测行为有影响吗 [J]. 金融研究, 2012, (6): 193-206.
[29]曾颖, 陆正飞. 信息披露质量与股权融资成本 [J]. 经济研究, 2006, (2): 69-79, 91.
[30]孙健, 王百强, 曹丰, 等. 公司战略影响盈余管理吗? [J]. 管理世界, 2016, (3): 160-169.
[31]李建军, 韩珣. 非金融企业影子银行化与经营风险 [J]. 经济研究, 2019, (8): 21-35.
[32]余明桂, 李文贵, 潘红波. 管理者过度自信与企业风险承担 [J]. 金融研究, 2013, (1): 149-163.
[33]谭松涛, 甘顺利, 阚铄. 媒体报道能够降低分析师预测偏差吗? [J]. 金融研究, 2015, (5): 192-206.
[34]游家兴, 邱世远, 刘淳. 证券分析师预测“变脸”行为研究——基于分析师声誉的博弈模型与实证检验 [J]. 管理科学学报, 2013, (6): 67-84.
[35]张宗新, 吴钊颖. 媒体情绪传染与分析师乐观偏差——基于机器学习文本分析方法的经验证据 [J]. 管理世界, 2021, (1): 170-185, 11, 20-22.
[36]刘晓孟, 周爱民. 分析师表现与明星分析师评选——基于“新财富”的准自然实验证据 [J]. 系统管理学报, 2022, (2): 329-342.