Abstract: With the continuous implementation of tax reduction and fee reduction policies, the effectiveness of the policies has received much attention. Especially in the period of declining economic growth and intensified fiscal pressure, it is of great importance to choose appropriate policy targets and implement precise policies to enhance residents' sense of gain and improve the quality and efficiency of active fiscal policies. In 2022, the central government launched a series of policies to stabilize the economy, among which the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy focuses on the automobile consumption sector that urgently needs to be recovered.
Based on the sample data of 977 vehicle models, this paper uses the PSM-DID method to conduct an empirical test on the impact of the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy since June 2022. It is found that the implementation of the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy significantly improved the vehicle sales in the short term. Specifically, when the vehicle purchase tax was reduced from 10% to 5%, sales of models under this policy increased by approximately 45.5%. This shows that precise tax reduction policies for specific consumption sector can produce a leverage effect and efficiently achieve the policy goal of stimulating consumption.
The group regression analysis based on model characteristics indicates that the effect of the tax reduction policy is more pronounced in sedan models and older models than SUV, MPV models and newer models. It suggests that the policy works better in those products where consumers have more bargaining space, which also means that accurate selection of policy targets will be an important way to improve the effectiveness of tax reduction policies. The moderating effect analysis also reveals that the improvement of consumer confidence can significantly enhance the implementation effect of tax reduction policies. Considering that the overall level of consumer confidence in China is at a historical low and has a lot of room for improvement, it has a good prospect to enhance the implementation effect of active fiscal policies by improving consumer confidence.
Further analysis finds that the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy can not only improve the vehicle sales, but also increase the tax revenue. This is because although the tax reduction policy has reduced the vehicle purchase tax rate of some models, the significant increase in automobile sales has resulted in a large number of new tax sources, and the overall tax revenue generated by these new tax sources increases with the growth of vehicle sales. The precise tax reduction policy for the demand side shows the advantage of direct and rapid return of related tax revenue, which is also a reflection of active fiscal policies' effect in improving quality and efficiency from the perspective of relieving fiscal pressure.
Basedon these conclusions, this paper proposes the following recommendations: First, the government should implement policies in a precise manner. Based on the investigation of consumer demand, a series of precise fiscal policies should be launched in industries with sluggish consumption, and allow more marketable high-quality products to enter the range of consumers' choices. Second, the government should focus on inspiring consumer confidence to strengthen the effect of fiscal policies. The government should create a good consumption environment, strictly monitor products' quality, safeguard consumers' rights, and stabilize consumers' expectations through better protection in the areas of employment, health care, and old-age care so that consumers will dare to consume and enjoy consuming, thus effectively enhancing the effectiveness of active fiscal policies while fully releasing the consumption potential.

Key words: Vehicle Purchase Tax, Tax Reduction Policy, Improve Quality and Efficiency, Consumer Confidence, PSM-DID

摘要： 随着减税降费的深入推进,积极财政政策的效能提升备受关注。本文以2022年6月起实施的车辆购置税减免作为政策冲击,基于977个车型的微观数据,运用PSM-DID方法,实证分析减税政策产生的经济影响。研究发现,针对消费者实施的车辆购置税减免政策显著提升了汽车销量,而且在轿车车型与年款较旧的车型中,减税政策效果更加显著。调节效应研究发现,消费者信心的提升可以增强减税政策的实施效果。进一步分析则发现,车辆购置税减免政策在提振汽车市场的同时,还带来了相关税收收入的显著增长。因此,未来在制定减税政策时,决策部门可针对消费低迷的行业精准施策,同时注重增强消费者信心,以有效提升政策效能。

关键词: 车辆购置税, 减税政策, 提质增效, 消费者信心, PSM-DID