Abstract: Economic dual circulation depends on the supervision efficiency of tax enforcement. Building a new development pattern of domestic and international circulation is an important strategic deployment of the 20th CPC National Congress. Economic dual circulation refers to the dynamic balance between the supply and demand of elements and products in both domestic and international markets. The sustainable circulation of elements is the internal basis of high-quality products, while the economic circulation is elements circulation. Since the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy, our country has achieved technological progress and economic growth with the comparative advantage of low-cost labor supply. However, the shortage of advanced elements makes the dual circulation development fall into a dilemma of imbalance. Due to the scarcity of production factors, local governments will compete for them with the competitive strategy of low tax burden. Especially in the case of imbalance of “motivation” and “constraint” mechanism, unfair tax competition aggravates the imbalance of factor endowment and inefficient resource input. There is no consensus among scholars as to whether tax enforcement should exert the supervision effect or increase the administrative burden. Then, as a key point affecting the elements circulation, how does tax enforcement affect economic dual circulation? Can it play a supervisory role in factor markets?
Based on the empirical evidence of 30 provinces from 2012 to 2020, this paper explores the influence of tax enforcement on economic dual circulation andits internal mechanism. The study shows that there is a U-shaped relationship between tax enforcement and dual circulation development, which is more significant in the southern regions or regions with better business environment. From the crowding-out effect of “race to the bottom” under low tax burden to the crowding-in effect of “competition for the best” under high tax burden, the “supervision effect” of tax enforcement replaces the “competition effect”, so as to promote dual circulation development. In the influencing mechanism, the upgrading of the industrial structure and the export of high-tech products are the powerful manifestation of the supervision effectiveness of tax enforcement, and the improvement of the total factor productivity and the regional innovation ability also play a positive role in the dual circulation development. Finally, the impact of tax enforcement on the dual circulation development has a significant spatial spillover effect, which is mainly reflected in the domestic circulation. Specifically, strengthening the supervision role of taxation promotes the dual circulation development in the local region, while weakening tax enforcement has a crowding-out effect on the dual circulation development in the local region and a crowding-in effect on neighboring regions.
The contributions of this paper are as follows: First, from the perspective of tax enforcement, it provides theoretical support and empirical evidence for local governments to help the dual circulation development, and then expands the research on influencing factors of the dual circulation. In addition, based on the empirical evidence of the dual circulation development, it also expand the research on the economic consequences of tax enforcement at the regional level. Second, it is difficult to observe the influence mechanism of tax enforcement on the dual circulation. This paper explores it from four aspects: total factor productivity, industrial structure upgrading, regional innovation ability and high-tech product export. Based on the practical background of the dual circulation development and combined with the role of tax enforcement in element circulation, this study sorts out the mechanism of the dual circulation development.

Key words: Tax Collection and Administration, Economic Dual Circulation, Elements Circulation, Supervision Effect

摘要： 双循环协调发展需要发挥税收征管的监督效能。本文以2012—2020年省域面板数据,探究了征税程度对双循环耦合协调度的影响及作用机理。研究发现,税收征管与双循环协调发展存在先抑后扬的U型关系,产业结构升级、高出口产品质量是重要的影响机制。在不同地区和营商环境下,税收征管的监督效能存在异质性,其在南部地区和良好的营商环境中影响更显著。拓展研究发现,税收征管对双循环协调发展存在空间效应,内循环的空间溢出效应更明显。本文为税收征管助力双循环协调发展提供了有益启示。

关键词: 税收征管, 双循环协调发展, 要素循环, 监督效能