Abstract: Based on data of 272 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2019, this article comprehensively constructs evaluation indicators for China's modern industrial system from the perspectives of service industry, digital industry, and green industry. The spatial Durbin model is used to empirically examine the impact of tax system structure optimization on urban industrial transformation and upgrading. The research results indicate that optimizing the tax system structure significantly promotes the industrial transformation and upgrading of local cities. From the perspective of spatial spillover, optimizing the tax system structure will generate negative spillover effects to inhibit the transformation and upgrading of neighboring cities, but there is heterogeneity in its spillover effects within urban agglomerations. Mechanism analysis shows that optimizing the tax system structure will promote industrial transformation and upgrading by promoting fair income distribution and maintaining stable commodity prices. Heterogeneity analysis finds that optimizing the tax system structure has a stronger promoting effect on the transformation and upgrading of digital industries, service industries, and urban-rural integration. The article provides a new perspective for deepening the reform of the tax system structure from the perspective of spatial spillover, and provides policy references for promoting industrial transformation and upgrading, and building a modern industrial system.

Key words: Industrial Transformation and Upgrading, Taxation Structure, Proportion of Direct Tax, Spatial Spillover, Resource Allocation

摘要： 基于2011—2019年我国272个地级市数据,本文从服务产业、数字产业、绿色产业等层面综合构建我国现代化产业体系评价指标,运用空间杜宾模型实证考察税制结构优化对城市产业转型升级的影响。研究发现,税制结构优化显著促进了当地城市的产业转型升级。从空间溢出角度来看,税制结构优化会产生负向溢出效应,抑制邻近城市产业转型升级,但是在城市群内部其溢出效应为正。机制分析表明,税制结构优化会通过促进收入分配公平和维持商品价格稳定来促进产业转型升级。此外,本文还发现,税制结构优化从数字化发展、科技创新发展以及城乡融合发展方面促进产业转型升级,提高个人所得税比重对产业转型升级的促进作用比提高企业所得税的促进作用更强。本文从空间溢出角度为深化税制结构改革提供新视角,为促进产业转型升级、建设现代化产业体系给予政策参考。

关键词: 产业转型升级, 税制结构, 直接税, 空间溢出, 资源配置