Abstract: This study examines the effects of China's Long-term Care Insurance (LTCI) pilot program on the elderly care industry, utilizing panel data from 294 cities over the period from 2000 to 2020. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach and a two-stage DID framework, we assess how LTCI influences workforce growth and technological innovation in the sector. Our results indicate that LTCI significantly enhances the effective demand for elderly care services by improving the financial capacity of disabled elderly individuals. On average, pilot cities experienced an annual increase of 6, 805 elderly care workers and 167 care institutions. Furthermore, the policy fosters technological innovation by intensifying market competition, leading to an additional 39 elderly care-related patents annually and a 0.047 percentage point rise in the share of such patents. Mechanism analysis reveals a synergistic “cost-demand” effect between minimum wage standards and LTCI, where higher wage benchmarks drive workforce and institutional growth. The innovation environment exhibits a dual effect: high-innovation cities leverage technological advancements to reduce labor dependency, while low-innovation regions strengthen foundational service delivery. Additionally, the policy's impact varies across urban and rural areas, with urban centers focusing on workforce and institutional expansion, and rural areas emphasizing the enhancement of service capacity within individual institutions. The in-kind subsidy model further promotes R&D investment through targeted funding. These findings provide valuable insights for refining LTCI policies and advancing the high-quality development of the elderly care industry.

Key words: Long-term Care Insurance, Elderly Care Industry, Patent, Innovation

摘要： 本文基于2000—2020年中国294个城市的面板数据,系统评估了长期护理保险试点政策对照护产业发展的影响。研究发现,长期护理保险通过提升失能老年人的支付能力,显著扩大了照护的有效需求,试点城市平均新增照护从业人员6805人,照护机构年均新增167家。同时,政策通过加速市场竞争,倒逼技术创新,试点城市年均新增养老专利39项,专利占比提升0.047个百分点。机制分析表明,最低工资标准与长期护理保险形成了“成本-需求”协同效应,最低工资标准的提高会带来照护从业人员与照护机构数量的增长。创新环境呈现“双刃剑效应”,高创新城市通过技术替代降低人力依赖,低创新区域则强化基础服务供给。此外,政策效果呈现显著的城乡差异,市区侧重照护从业人员与照护机构数量的增长,而非市区更多体现为单机构服务能力的提升;服务补贴方式通过资金定向引导,促进研发投入的增加。本文为优化长期护理保险政策设计、推动照护产业发展提供了重要的理论依据和政策启示。

关键词: 长期护理保险, 照护产业, 专利, 创新