Abstract: Taking basic pension insurance for urban employees for example, this paper establishes actuarial models to analyze whether the contribution rate can be decreased based on the assumptions that the basic pension insurance fund can operate regularly from the year of 2016 to 2090. The results are as follows: (1) if the retirement age is delayed three months yearly until that the retirement age reaches 65 years old, and the second-child-bearing willingness achieves 61% and above, the contribution rate can be reduced from 28% to 25.51%~27.94%; (2) if further allowing the basic pension insurance fund to invest into the stock market, and the return of investment can reach 8.82% announced by National Council for Social Security Fund, the contribution rate can be further reduced to 24.43%~26.41%; (3) if the government further continues to reduce state-owned shares to enrich the social security fund, the contribution rate can be further reduced to 23.63%~25.54%. In summary, to reduce the high burden of social insurance contribution for employers and employees, in addition to delaying retirement ages and taking measures to encourage childbearing willingness, the government can perfect the policy of allowing the basic pension insurance fund to invest into the stock market and reducing state-owned shares to enrich the social security fund.

Key words: Basic Pension Insurance, Contribution Burden, Decreasing Space, Actuarial Evaluation

摘要： 以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例,在确保基金2016～2090年正常运转的前提下,通过建立精算模型分析缴费率是否具备降低空间,研究发现:如果退休年龄自2022年每年延迟3个月直至65岁,且“全面二孩”生育意愿达到61%及以上,缴费率可从28%降至25.51%～27.94%;进一步,如果允许养老保险基金入市,且投资收益率达到全国社保基金理事会公布的8.82%,无论“全面二孩”生育意愿为多少,缴费率可降至24.43%～26.41%;再进一步,如果政府继续减持国有股充实全国社保基金,缴费率可降至23.63%～25.54%。综上所述,为减轻用人单位和职工的缴费负担,除采取延迟退休和鼓励生育等措施外,政府还可尽快完善养老金入市、减持国有股充实社保基金。

关键词: 基本养老保险, 缴费负担, 降低空间, 精算评估