Study on Dynamics of Rural Household Livelihood Strategy and Its Influencing Factors——Based on CFPS Micro Data

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the micro data of farmers in the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2010 to 2016, this paper uses cluster analysis and transition matrix to explore the reasons for the slowdown in the growth rate of rural-urban migration from the perspective of the dynamics of farmers' livelihood strategies. The transfer matrix of farmers' livelihood strategy shows that the total number of non-farmers kept increasing from 2010 to 2014, while the number of non-farmers declined significantly in 2016 and the main changes took place in agricultural and agribusiness households. Additionally, it is comparatively easier for the part-time livelihood strategy to change. Based on the sustainable livelihood framework, the dynamic framework of livelihood strategy dynamics is constructed, and the Multi-Logit model is used to analyze the factors influencing the livelihood strategy dynamics. The results show that the higher the natural capital is, the more the farmer's livelihood strategy tends to change to part-time livelihood strategy, and the higher the human capital is, the more favorable it is for peasant households to change into non-agricultural. Moreover, the material capital has a promoting effect on agriculturalization, whereas the financial capital has an inhibitory effect on agriculturalization. Transferring out Rural land promotes farmers' livelihood strategy to change into non-agricultural, transferring in rural land promotes farmers' livelihood strategy to change into agricultural; the livelihood strategies of farmers in plain areas are more unstable than those in other areas.

Key words: Transition Matrix, Agricultural, Non-agricultural, Multiple Occupations, Livelihood Capital

摘要： 本文以2010~2016年四期中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)的农户微观数据为研究样本,采用聚类分析和状态转移矩阵等方法,从农户生计策略变动的角度探寻农村劳动力转移增速减缓的原因。研究结果表明,2010~2014年非农业的数量保持上升趋势,2016年非农业明显下滑且主要向农业和农业兼业转变,兼业户的生计策略易变动。基于可持续的生计框架,构建生计策略动态性分析框架,并采用多项选择模型分析生计策略变动的影响因素,发现自然资本越高,农户生计策略更趋向兼业化变动;人力资本越高,越有利于农户向非农业变动;物质资本对农业化具有促进作用,金融资本对农业化具有抑制作用;农村土地转出促进农户生计策略向非农方向变动,农村土地转入促进农户生计策略向农业方向变动;平原地区农户的生计策略相对于其他地区更不稳定。

关键词: 状态转移矩阵, 农业化, 非农化, 兼业化, 生计资本

CLC Number:

F014.4

CHEN Liangmin, DING Shijun, CHEN Yuping. Study on Dynamics of Rural Household Livelihood Strategy and Its Influencing Factors——Based on CFPS Micro Data[J]. , 2020, 36(3): 12-21.

陈良敏, 丁士军, 陈玉萍. 农户家庭生计策略变动及其影响因素研究——基于CFPS微观数据[J]. 财经论丛, 2020, 36(3): 12-21.

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