Abstract: Based on the theory of risk energy release, this paper constructs a system dynamic model of local government debt risk assessment, and uses the grey prediction model to predict the risk. The changing trend of local government debt risk is simulated by the case simulation, and the risk sensitivity factors are tested. The empirical results show that the tax revenue and the fiscal expenditure are the most sensitive factors, followed by the fixed assets investment and the population factors, while the sensitivity of the land income varies from region to region, and interest rates are insensitive factors. Furthermore, it puts forward corresponding suggestions from the aspects of the fiscal and the taxation system reform, controlling the non-rigid fiscal expenditures, improving the population mobility system and the land income policy. This paper clarifies the multiple feedback structure of the local government debt risk system from a dynamic perspective, and reveal the impact mechanism of the sensitive factors of the local government debt risk system, which provides strong support for the local government to control the debt risk.

Key words: Local Government Debt, Debt Risk Measurement, Risk Energy, Risk Forecasting, System Dynamics

摘要： 本文依据风险能量释放理论,构建了地方政府债务风险评价的系统动力学模型,借助灰色预测模型进行风险预测,通过案例仿真模拟了地方政府债务风险变化趋势,并进行了风险敏感性因素测试。实证结果表明:税收收入和财政支出是最敏感因素,固定资产投资和人口因素次之,而土地收入的敏感性因地区而异,利率等是不敏感因素。进而从财税体制改革、控制非刚性财政支出、完善人口流动制度和土地收入政策等方面提出相应建议。本文从动态角度明晰了地方政府债务风险系统的多重反馈结构,揭示了地方政府债务风险系统敏感性因素的影响机制,为地方政府管控债务风险提供有力支撑。

关键词: 地方政府债务, 债务风险度量, 风险能量, 风险预测, 系统动力学