Abstract: Based on the monthly data of the national urban survey unemployment rate and consumer price index, this paper constructs a state-space model containing the Phillips curve relationship expressed as a triangular model and the change process of the natural unemployment rate, and estimates the natural unemployment rate by using the Kalman filter method. It is found that China's natural unemployment rate has shown an upward drift in recent years, rising continuously from 4.22% in January 2018 to 4.77% in February 2024, and that since the economy rebounded and improved in 2023, the natural unemployment rate has not reverted to the pre-shock level, and there has been a stagnation in unemployment. The natural unemployment rates of workers of different age groups and household registration groups are all drifting upward, but the natural unemployment rates of young workers aged 16～24 and local household registration groups have increased significantly more. In the face of the upward drift in the natural unemployment rate and the phenomenon of unemployment stagnation in China at this stage, the government should strengthen its aggregate employment stimulus policy, create more employment opportunities, eliminate structural and frictional factors that impede full employment, and relax the strength of labor regulations for the youth group, so as to enhance the self-healing capacity of the labor market.

Key words: Natural Rate of Unemployment, Labor Market, Upward Drift, Unemployment Stagnate

摘要： 本文基于全国城镇调查失业率、居民消费价格指数等月度数据,构建包含以三角模型表达的菲利普斯曲线关系和自然失业率变动过程的状态空间模型,采用Kalman滤波方法估算自然失业率。研究发现,近年来中国自然失业率呈现向上攀升的趋势,从2018年1月的4.22%持续升至2024年2月的4.77%,且在2023年经济回升向好以来,自然失业率并没有回复到新冠疫情冲击前的水平,出现了失业回滞的现象;不同年龄段、不同户籍劳动者群体的自然失业率均呈不断向上攀升,但16～24岁青年劳动者、本地户籍群体的自然失业率上升幅度明显更大。面对现阶段中国出现的自然失业率向上攀升和失业回滞的现象,政府部门要加强总量就业刺激政策的力度,创造更多就业机会,消除妨碍充分就业的结构性和摩擦性因素,放宽青年群体劳动力规制的力度,增强劳动力市场自我修复能力。

关键词: 自然失业率, 劳动力市场, 向上攀升, 失业回滞