Abstract: Based on the micro-combined data of the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database and the China Customs Import and Export Database from 2005 to 2014, an empirical analysis was conducted on the impact of intelligent manufacturing represented by the application of industrial robots on employment in the manufacturing industry. The results show that the impact of intelligent manufacturing on employment in the manufacturing industry varies significantly at both the enterprise level and the industry level, creating a situation where enterprises “replace personnel” and industries “coexist”. Further exploration of the effect of employment reconfiguration reveals that, on the one hand, the intelligent manufacturing upgrade of enterprises will promote the improvement of the productivity level of the industry, thereby increasing the number of enterprises within the industry, enhancing the demand and supply of industry products and the level of industry competition, and promoting employment. On the other hand, the labor force squeezed out by intelligent manufacturing enterprises will flow into non-intelligent manufacturing enterprises in the same industry or non-intelligent manufacturing industries in the same city. The employment demand at the medium and macro levels has not decreased. Therefore, the government should shift from preventing “machine replacement of human labor” to actively responding to the employment reconfiguration effect of intelligent manufacturing, improve the cross-enterprise and cross-industry employment service system, and maintain employment stability during the intelligent upgrading process of the manufacturing industry.

Key words: Intelligent Manufacturing, Replacing Humans in Enterprises, Human-machine Symbiosis in Industry, Industrial Robot, Employment

摘要： 本文基于2005—2014年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库的微观合并数据,实证分析以工业机器人应用为代表的智能制造对制造业就业的影响。研究结果表明:智能制造对制造业就业的影响在企业和行业层面存在显著差异,形成企业“换人”和行业“共生”的局面;企业智能制造升级促进行业生产力水平提升,增加行业内部企业数量、行业产品的需求和供给,提高行业竞争水平,促进就业;智能制造企业挤出的劳动力将流入本行业非智能制造的企业或本城市非智能制造的行业,但中观和宏观层面的就业需求没有降低。因此,政府应从防止“机器换人”转向积极应对智能制造就业再配置效应,完善跨企业、跨行业的就业服务体系,维护制造业智能化升级过程中的就业稳定。

关键词: 智能制造, 企业“换人”, 行业“共生”, 工业机器人, 就业