›› 2014, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 16-23.

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Estimating the Aging Effect upon Income Inequality in China

  

  • Received:2013-10-28 Revised:2013-12-05 Online:2014-05-10 Published:2014-05-09

老龄化加剧中国收入不平等了吗?

刘金东1,冯经纶2,王生发3   

  1. 1. 上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院
    2. 上海财经大学
    3. 上海财经大学人文学院
  • 通讯作者: 刘金东
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目;上海财经大学研究生创新基金

Abstract: Domestic scholars have justified the negative effects of population aging upon income inequality in China. Due to the limitations of previous research methods, however, they are unable to accurately measure the contribution rate of aging effect upon total income inequality. In this paper we come up with the aging effect’s expression on the basis of Gini coefficient and divide it into the two parts of inter-age effect and intra-age effect. Using CHNS micro data in the period of 1993-2009, our calculation results come as follows: Firstly, the aging effect in China mainly comes from the inter-age effect while the intra-age effect can be neglected. Secondly, to remove the aging effect does not change the rising trend of China's Gini coefficient in recent years, just the opposite, will makes Chinese Gini turning point in 2008 disappear. Third, contribution rate of domestic aging effect on China’s income inequality seems far lower than abroad, once removed aging effect, the adjusted Gini coefficient of China will be more prominent in comparison with other countries.

摘要: 国内学者论证了人口老龄化对中国收入不平等程度的负面影响,但由于方法上的局限性,以往研究均无法精确衡量出老龄化效应对收入不平等的贡献率。本文在基尼系数基础上推导了老龄化效应表达式,将老龄化效应界定为年龄内效应和年龄间效应两部分。利用CHNS微观数据对中国1993-2009阶段的计算结果显示:其一,中国老龄化效应主要来自于年龄间效应,年龄内效应可以忽略不计;其二,剔除老龄化效应并不改变中国基尼系数近年来不断上升的趋势,反而使得中国2008年的“基尼拐点”消失;其三,老龄化效应对中国基尼系数的贡献率远低于国外,一旦剔除老龄化效应,中国基尼系数相比其他国家将更加突出。

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