Abstract: It is an empirical issue to analyse relative trade-neutrality of VAT under all real conditions . Taking into account exchangde rate and informal economy, this paper conducts empirical research by VAR model,and trade-neutrality of VAT which is the empirical rule in developed countries is tested for developing countries．Based on the multinational data from 1994 to 2012 ，the empirical results show that in the developing countries there is also relative trade-neutrality of VAT, informal economy can explain the existence of trade effect to some extent. Considering China's special national situations, this paper uses multivariate time series data of China from 1990 to 2012.The empirical analysis shows that VAT has some a negative impact on exports trade,and there is no signficantly relative trade-neutrality.

摘要： 在各种现实条件下对增值税相对贸易中性效应的探讨，这是一个实证问题。本文从非正规经济视角出发，借助VAR模型对主流理论中发达国家的增值税贸易中性理论在发展中国家是否适用进行了检验。基于1994-2012年16个发展中国家的跨国面板数据，研究结果发现，发展中国家同样存在增值税相对贸易中性效应，非正规经济的存在可以在一定程度上解释相对贸易中性的存在问题。考虑到我国特殊的发展国情，本文利用1990-2012年我国多维变量时间序列数据，实证分析表明，在我国增值税对出口贸易发展具有一定阻碍作用，且并不存在显著的贸易中性效应。