Abstract: In this article, eight kinds of consuming expenditure of urban residents who have different incomes in China are estimated by micro method that taking advantage of ELES model and cross section data, and price elasticities of consumers’ demand are calculated. Then, elasticities theories are used to building framework of commodity tax and tax shifting. Taking advantage of price elasticities, the fact is analyzed how residents share the amount of taxes, including value-added tax, excise tax and business tax when they expense for their commodities. And the range of commodity tax shifting is also estimated. Some conclusions include that commodity tax is not regressive, tax is neutral, tax burden is different from their kinds of goods and services consumption for different income groups, and residents’ tax burden is tightly related to levying scale and tax rate of commodity tax. As a result, policies and suggestions are given in the article, including that proportion of commodity tax should be decreasing gradually, business tax should be substituted further by value-added tax, excise tax function should be improved, and commodity tax should be excludable from prices rather than includable with prices, and so on.

Key words: Residents&rsquo, Consumption

摘要： 本文借鉴ELES模型，利用横截面数据对我国不同收入等级的城镇居民八类消费性支出进行了微观模拟，对其需求的价格弹性进行测算。在此基础上，将弹性引入商品税及其税负转嫁分析框架，利用价格弹性分析了居民在消费支出过程中承担增值税、消费税和营业税的情况，对税负转嫁的方式和力度进行了实证评估。结果发现，我国商品税不具有明显的累退性，商品税“中性”特点显著。但在不同收入阶层之间，对于不同的商品和服务，税收负担份额是不同的，居民税收负担与商品税征税范围、税率等要素高度相关。基于此，提出要逐步降低商品税比重、进一步扩大“营改增”范围、完善消费税功能、以及将价内税改为价外税等政策建议。