财经论丛 ›› 2015, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 3-10.

• 劳动经济 •    下一篇

农业技术进步、新型城镇化与农村剩余劳动力转移—基于“推拉理论”和省际动态面板数据的实证研究

李斌,吴书胜  朱业   

  1. 湖南大学经济与贸易学院
  • 收稿日期:2015-03-12 修回日期:2015-05-31 出版日期:2015-10-10 发布日期:2015-09-28
  • 通讯作者: 吴书胜
  • 基金资助:

    科技促进经济发展方式转变的评价方法和体系研究;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目

Agricultural Technology Process, New-urbanization and Transference of Redundant Rural Labor Force—empirical research based on the “push-pull theory” and inter-provincial dynamic panel data

  • Received:2015-03-12 Revised:2015-05-31 Online:2015-10-10 Published:2015-09-28

摘要: 本文以“推拉理论”为基础,构建包含农业技术进步、新型城镇化和农村剩余劳动力转移在内的计量模型,利用1998-2012年省际动态面板数据进行实证检验。全国研究表明,农业技术进步形成的“推力”和新型城镇化形成的“拉力”对于促进农村剩余劳动力向城镇非农产业转移有显著作用。分区域研究表明,农业技术进步的“推力”由大到小依次为西部、东部和中部,而城镇化的“拉力”由大到小依次为中部、西部和东部。另外,城乡收入差距对东部农村剩余劳动力转移有显著正向促进作用,而中西部则无影响。户籍因素对农村剩余劳动力转移的阻力作用越来越弱。

Abstract: This paper builds econometric model which contains agricultural technology process, new-urbanization and transference of redundant rural labor force, and makes empirical test based on “push-pull theory” by using 1998-2012 annual inter-provincial dynamic panel data. National study shows the “push” from agricultural technology process and the “pull” from new-urbanization has a significant role for the promotion of rural surplus labor to urban non-agricultural industries. Sub-regional study shows that the “push” from agricultural technology process in descending order is western, eastern and central, and the “pull” from new-urbanization in descending order is central, western and eastern. In addition, the income gap between urban and rural has a significant positive role in promoting rural surplus labor transfer in the eastern but nothing influence in the other areas. The resistance of household factor is becoming weaker.

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