Abstract: To research the influence of the environment variables, such as regional economic growth, provincial government efficiency, and so on, to the fiscal budget deviation, the article tries to formulate three theoretical assumption, and test them with methods including the integration test, error correction model, impulse response function and the panel econometric model and so on. The results show that: there exit long-term and stable relationship among the research variables; the influence of Regional economic growth to budget deviation is most significantly, and shows a positive effect; the long-term relationship between local government efficiency and budget deviation is more stable, and local government efficiency has negative impact on the budget deviation; relationship between the fiscal budget expenditure and income divergence is weak, and the elasticity coefficient is low. To shrink the budget deviation, local government performance evaluation system should be optimized. Under the economic background of the new normal，we should decrease the GDP index weight, pay more attention to the government efficiency, strengthen budgetary expenditure autonomy, and promote the building of modern financial governance mechanisms.