财经论丛 ›› 2016, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (5): 3-10.

• 国际贸易 •    下一篇

中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放变动特征及驱动因素分解

欧阳小迅 戴育琴  瞿艳平   

  1. 湖南商学院
  • 收稿日期:2015-12-30 修回日期:2016-03-10 出版日期:2016-05-10 发布日期:2016-05-05
  • 通讯作者: 欧阳小迅
  • 基金资助:

    中国全要素生产率增长:结构调整、比较优势与动态演进

Analysis on Characteristics and Driving Factors of CO2 Emissions Embodied in Agriculture Exporting Trade of China

  • Received:2015-12-30 Revised:2016-03-10 Online:2016-05-10 Published:2016-05-05

摘要: 本文首先建立投入产出模型,测算2001-2013年中国农产品出口隐含碳排放量及其部门分布,按照变化规律将中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放分为快速增长期、转折期、稳定增长期3个阶段;然后运用LMDI 分解法,将2001-2013年中国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放增长分解为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应三种因素的贡献,总体和分部门分析3个阶段各驱动因素影响的正负向及强弱大小。实证结果表明,2001-2013年我国农产品出口贸易隐含碳排放量年均增长8.98%,其中农业部门、食品加工业部门是出口隐含碳排放量最多的部门;规模效应是导致农产品出口CO2增加的主要原因,累计贡献为增加隐含碳排放6923.88万吨,贡献率180.64%;技术效应是抑制农产品出口CO2排放量增长贡献最重要的因素,2001-2013年使得中国农产品出口隐含碳排放量减少-1242.66万吨;而结构效应微弱,2001-2013年累计贡献率仅为-1.3%。

Abstract: The carbon emissions embodied in agriculture exports of China in 2001-2013 was evaluated by using an IO model and the driving factors of it were decomposed into scale effects, structure effects, and technology effects with LMDI technique. The results show that the average annual growth rate of carbon emission embodied in agriculture exports of China in 2001-2013 is 8.98%,and crop farming department and food processing department are the highest carbon emission departments. The scale effect is the main reason that causes the increase of CO2 emission in agricultural products export, the contribution rate is 180.64% ; the technology effect is the most important factor to restrain the growth of CO2 emission in agricultural products export and makes China's CO2 emission of agricultural products export reduce -1242.66 million tons 2001-2013, but the technical effect is not necessarily lead to reduction of co2 emission in agriculture export. Technology effects are likely to have a positive driving effect with increase of energy consumption and energy intensity. The structure effect is weak, the contribution contribution rate of 2001-2013 is only -1.3%.

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