关键词: 通货膨胀感受偏差, 异质性, 损失厌恶, 过度自信, 锚定效应

Abstract: Consistent with foreign survey results, our survey data also show that the inflation rate perceived by individual consumers is not only generally higher than the official CPI, but also displays significant heterogeneity. Why do household inflation perceptions show systematic bias and heterogeneity? This article establishes an individual inflation perception model and analyzes the formation mechanism of the bias of individual consumers’ inflation perception in the mold. The results are as follows: (1) Because of the existence of psychological bias such as “loss aversion”, “overconfidence”, “anchoring effect” and “availability”, consumers tend to over-estimate the inflation; (2) The more frequently they shop, or the worse their family economic condition is, or the less they learn about the official inflation data and conception of inflation rate, or the lower their educational level is, the more severely consumers will over-estimate the inflation.

Key words: Inflation Perception Bias, Availability, Loss Aversion, Overconfidence, Anchoring Effect