管理层会使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测吗？——基于闭区间预测的实证分析

财经论丛 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (2): 67-75.

管理层会使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测吗？——基于闭区间预测的实证分析

吉姗姗, 王福胜

哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院,黑龙江哈尔滨 150001

收稿日期:2016-04-19 出版日期:2017-02-10 发布日期:2017-02-10
作者简介:吉姗姗(1984-),女,黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院博士生; 王福胜(1964-),男,黑龙江富锦人,哈尔滨工业大学经济与管理学院教授,博士
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71672046; 70972097)

Do Managers Attempt to Meet Their Own Earnings Forecasts?——Empirical Evidence Based on Range Forecasts

JI Shanshan, WANG Fusheng

School of Economics and Management,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin 150001,China

Received:2016-04-19 Online:2017-02-10 Published:2017-02-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文以2010~2014年度在沪深两市针对年度净利润发布了闭区间盈余预测的A股上市公司为研究样本,实证考察了管理层使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测的行为。研究发现:管理层会尽力使报告盈余处于闭区间预测的下限与上限之间,即管理层会使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测;当预计本期报告盈余可能低于闭区间预测的下限或高于上限时,管理层会采用应计盈余管理或预测修正,使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测。本文研究结论为考察报告盈余满足管理层盈余预测行为的存在性提供了直接证据,也为监管机构与投资者加深对管理层预测修正和盈余管理行为的理解提供了实证支持。

关键词: 管理层盈余预测, 闭区间预测, 应计盈余管理, 预测修正

Abstract: Taking A-share listed companies which issued management range forecasts on annual net income in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets from 2010 to 2014 as study sample,this paper investigates whether the management make firm's reported earnings meeting their own forecasted earnings targets. The results show that the management will try their best to make firm's reported earnings fall between the lower bound and the upper bound of the range forecasts,indicating that the management do make firm's reported earnings meeting their own issued earnings forecasts. Moreover,when predicting firm's current reported earnings fall below the lower bound of their range forecasts,the management tend to modify the reported earnings upward or revise the initial forecasts downward in order to make firm's reported earnings fall above the lower bound of the forecasts; when expecting firm's current reported earnings fall above the upper bound of management range forecasts,management tend to manage reported earnings downward or revise initial forecast upward in order to make firm's reported earnings fall below the upper bound of the forecasts. This study provides not only direct evidence consistent with the existence of the behavior of reported earnings meeting management earnings forecasts,but also suggestions for regulators to enhance their supervision of the behavior of management forecast revisions.

Key words: Management Earnings Forecasts, Range Forecasts, Accrual-based Earnings Management, Forecast Revisions

中图分类号:

F272.1

吉姗姗, 王福胜. 管理层会使报告盈余满足自己发布的盈余预测吗？——基于闭区间预测的实证分析[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(2): 67-75.

JI Shanshan, WANG Fusheng. Do Managers Attempt to Meet Their Own Earnings Forecasts?——Empirical Evidence Based on Range Forecasts[J]. , 2017, 33(2): 67-75.

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