中国央行定向降准政策的有效性——基于双重差分模型的实证研究

财经论丛 ›› 2017, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 37-46.

中国央行定向降准政策的有效性——基于双重差分模型的实证研究

黎齐

中国人民银行重庆营业管理部,重庆 401147

收稿日期:2016-01-19 出版日期:2017-04-10 发布日期:2017-04-10
作者简介:黎齐(1989-),男,江西九江人,中国人民银行重庆营业管理部经济师

The Effect of China's Targeted Reserve Adjustment Policy——The Empirical Study Using the DID Model

LI Qi

Chongqing Operations Office of PBC, Chongqing 401147, China

Received:2016-01-19 Online:2017-04-10 Published:2017-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用双重差分模型对定向降准政策效果、持续实施效果以及政策传递途径和政策失效原因进行实证研究。研究结果表明:定向降准政策释放的流动性未精确流入目标企业、行业;持续实施的定向降准政策也未改善原有政策的效果;定向降准政策以商业银行作为定向引导的途径效果不佳。最后从实施配套政策、改变定向调控思路、激活引导途径等方面提出了建议。

关键词: 定向降准, 货币政策, “三农”, 小微企业, 双重差分模型

Abstract: This paper uses the difference in difference(DID) model to analyze the effect of targeted reserve adjustment policy, and based on it, explores the lasting effect and transition mechanism of such policy. The results are as follows: (1) Extra liquidity released by targeted RRR cut policy hasn't precisely flown into target enterprises or industries. (2) Continuous implementation of the policy hasn't improved the effect of the original policy. (3) Using the targeted reserve adjustment policy to conduct targeted guidance via commercial banks proves to be invalid. In the last part, this paper puts forward several suggestions regarding the supporting policies, the change of the targeted regulation concept and positive guidance, etc.

Key words: Targeted Reserve Adjustment, Monetary Policy, Three Agriculture, Small Business, DID Model

中图分类号:

F822.0

黎齐. 中国央行定向降准政策的有效性——基于双重差分模型的实证研究[J]. 财经论丛, 2017, 33(4): 37-46.

LI Qi. The Effect of China's Targeted Reserve Adjustment Policy——The Empirical Study Using the DID Model[J]. , 2017, 33(4): 37-46.

参考文献

[1]Joyce M., A. Lasaosa, I. Stevens.The Financial Market Impact of Quantitative Easing in the United Kingdom[J].International Journal of Central Banking, 2011, 7(3) : 113-161.
[2]Ehlers T.The Effectiveness of the Federal Reserve's Maturity Extension Program-Operation Twist 2: The Portfolio Rebalancing Channel and Public Debt Management[Z].BIS Paper, 2012.
[3]Krishnamurthy A. and A. Vissing-Jorgensen.The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy[Z].NBER Working Paper, 17555, 2011.
[4]Boeckx J., M. Dossche and G. Peersman.Effectiveness and Transmission of the ECB's Balance Sheet Policies[J].CESifo Working Paper, 4907, 2014.
[5]Praet P.Keynote Speech at the Paris Europlace International Financial Forum[EB/OL].https://www.bis.org/review/r140714a.htm, 2014.
[6]Draghi M.Introductory Remarks at the EP's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee[EB/OL].http://www.bis.org/review/r140923a.htm?ql=1, 2014.
[7]汪仁洁.货币政策的阶段性特征和定向调控选择[J].改革, 2014, (7): 15-24 .
[8]陈萍.央行定向降准面面观[J].国际金融, 2014, (7): 53-56.
[9]马理, 刘艺, 何梦泽.定向调控类货币政策的国际比较与我国的对策[J].经济纵横, 2015, (10):107-112.
[10]马理, 娄田田, 牛慕鸿.定向降准与商业银行行为选择[J].金融研究, 2015, (9): 82-95.
[11]Swanson E. Let's Twist Again: A High-frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2[Z].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2010, pp. 151-188.
[12]Eichengreen B. The ECB Tries Again[J].Intereconomics, 2014, (4): 240.
[13]Lea R.Eurozone Weakness: The ECB Responds[J].Energy, 2014, (2): 1.
[14]周黎安, 陈烨.中国农村税费改革的政策效果:基于双重差分模型的估计[J].经济研究, 2005, (8): 44-53.
[15]陈林, 伍海军.国内双重差分法的研究现状与潜在问题[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2015, (7): 133-148.
[16]黎齐. 货币政策、利率市场化与信贷资源错配——基于非平等市场地位的信贷自己供给平衡模型[J].金融经济学研究, 2016, (2): 3-13.