财经论丛 ›› 2018, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (4): 18-30.

• 财政与税务 • 上一篇    下一篇

土地财政阻滞市场化改革的进程了吗?——来自中国省级层面的经验证据

卢新波, 张经纬   

  1. 浙江财经大学经济学院,浙江 杭州 310018
  • 收稿日期:2017-10-15 出版日期:2018-04-10 发布日期:2018-04-13
  • 作者简介:卢新波(1965-),男,浙江嵊州人,浙江财经大学经济学院教授,博士生导师;张经纬(1990-),男,河南信阳人,浙江财经大学经济学院硕士生。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金面上项目 (15BJL106)

Does Land Finance Hinder the Process of Market Reform ?——Evidence From the Inter-Provincial Panel Data in China

LU Xinbo, ZHANG Jingwei   

  1. School of Economics, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
  • Received:2017-10-15 Online:2018-04-10 Published:2018-04-13

摘要: 本文首先提炼出一个关于中国渐进式改革推进机制的假说,然后以此为分析框架,阐述土地财政阻滞中国市场化改革的内在逻辑,最后运用1999~2014年中国省际面板数据,实证检验了上述理论假设。研究结果表明:(1)利用固定效应、DIF-GMM和SYS-GMM模型估计显示,土地财政与市场化改革之间的系数均在5%的水平下显著为负,土地财政每增加一单位,市场化改革的进程平均降低0.45个百分点;(2)采用土地财政依赖度替代土地财政,用同样的方法估计得出,土地财政依赖度每上升1%,市场化改革的推进平均下降0.36%,回归结果依然一致;(3)通过构建财政分权和土地财政的交互项,经克服内生性的DIF-GMM与SYS-GMM模型检验发现,财政分权对市场化改革的进程也存在影响,财政分权通过土地财政这一中介而对市场化改革的推进产生阻碍,这种中介效应的平均影响程度为0.25%,在控制了影响市场化改革的多种因素后,估计结果依旧稳健。本文的研究为市场化改革停滞原因的探究提供了新的经验证据。

关键词: 土地财政, 市场化改革, 改革停滞

Abstract: This paper first puts forward a hypothesis about the promotion mechanism of China's reform, then uses it as an analytical framework to illustrate the inherent logic of how the land finance blocks China's market reform, and finally, using the inter-provincial panel data from 1999 to 2014, confirms the theoretical assumption. The results of the research are as follows: (1)The method of Fixed effect, DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM models are used to show that the coefficients between the land finance and the market reform are significantly negative at the level of 5%, and that for each additional unit of land finance, the process of market reform is reduced by an average of 0.45 Percentage points;(2) When the land finance is replaced by the land financial dependence, it is estimated that with the same method, the land financial dependence rises by 1% and the marketization reform declines by an average of 0.36%, and the regression results are still consistent;(3)Through the fiscal decentralization and land finance's interaction, the DIF-GMM and SYS-GMM models which overcome the endogeesis find that fiscal decentralization also has an impact on the process of marketization reform. Fiscal decentralization has hindered the advancement of marketization through the intermediary of land finance. The average impact is 0.25%. After controlling a variety of factors that affect the marketization reform, the results are still robust. The research of this paper provides new empirical evidence for the study on the reasons for the stagnation of the marketization reform.

Key words: Land Finance, Market Reform, Reform Stagnation

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