经济政策不确定性与企业风险承担

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 采用Baker et al.(2013)基于文本分析法构建的中国经济政策不确定性指数并结合我国上市企业的财务数据构建面板数据模型,研究经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的影响。结果表明,经济政策不确定性的增加会显著降低企业风险承担水平。进一步研究发现,企业规模越小,成长性越差,经济政策不确定性增加对企业风险承担水平的负向影响越大;企业面临的投资机会越多,经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担的负向影响越大。上述结论意味着在供给侧结构性改革背景下,政府应保持宏观经济政策的连续性和平稳性,并提高政策的精准性,以适当增加企业风险承担水平,促进企业R&D投入和社会全要素生产率的提升。

关键词: 经济政策不确定性, 企业风险承担, 全要素生产率

Abstract: This paper uses the economic policy uncertainty index constructed by Baker et al.(2013) to investigate how economic policy uncertainty influences corporate risk-taking. The results show that corporate risk-taking significantly decreases when economic policy uncertainty increases. Further research finds that this effect is more obvious when the corporate has smaller size and worse growth as well as when the coporate has more investment opportunities. These results indicate that against the background of the structural reform of the supply side, the government should maintain the continuity and stability of economic policies and improve the accuracy of policies so as to help enterprises enhance their risk-taking capabilities, further promote corporate R&D investment and improve the total factor productivity of the society.

Key words: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Corporate Risk-Taking, Total Factor Productivity

中图分类号:

F275.5

薛龙. 经济政策不确定性与企业风险承担[J]. 财经论丛, 2019, 35(12): 55-65.

XUE Long. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Risk-Taking[J]. , 2019, 35(12): 55-65.

参考文献

[1] Hilary G., Hui K. W.Does Religion Matter in Corporate Decision Making in America?[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing,2009,(3):455-473.
[2] 李文贵,余明桂.所有权性质、市场化进程与企业风险承担[J]. 中国工业经济,2012,(12):115-127.
[3] John K.,Litov L.,Yeung B.Corporate Governance and Risk-Taking[J]. Journal of Finance,2008,(4):1679-1728.
[4] 解维敏,唐清泉.公司治理与风险承担——来自中国上市公司的经验证据[J]. 财经问题研究,2013,(1):91-97.
[5] Baker S.,Bloom N. ,Davis S., et al. A Measure of Economic Policy Uncertainty for China[Z]. University of Chicago Working Paper,2013.
[6] Colombo V. Economic Policy Uncertainty in the US: Does it Matter for the Euro Area?[J]. Economics Letters, 2013, 121(1):39-42.
[7] Istrefi K., Piloiu A. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations[Z]. Banque de France Working Paper ,2014.
[8] Baker S. R.,Bloom N. ,Davis S. J. Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2016,134(4):1593－1636.
[9] Caggiano G., Castelnuovo E., Figueres J. M. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Unemployment in the United States: A Nonlinear Approach[J].Economics Letters, 2017, 151:31-34.
[10] 金雪军,钟意,王义中.政策不确定性的宏观经济后果[J].经济理论与经济管理,2014,(2):17-26.
[11]张玉鹏,王茜.政策不确定性的非线性宏观经济效应及其影响机制研究[J]. 财贸经济,2016,(4):116-133.
[12] 田磊,林建浩,张少华.政策不确定性是中国经济波动的主要因素吗——基于混合识别法的创新实证研究[J].财贸经济,2017,(1):5-20.
[13] Kang W., Lee K., Ratti R. A. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm-level Investment[J]. Journal of Macroeconomics, 2014, 39(3):42-53.
[14] Gulen H. ,Ion M. Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2016,29(3):523-564.
[15] 陈国进,王少谦.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业投资行为[J].财贸经济,2016,(5):5-21.
[16] 饶品贵,岳衡,姜国华.经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为研究[J].世界经济,2017,(2):27-51.
[17] Wang Y., Wei Y., Song F. M. Uncertainty and Corporate R&D Investment: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms[J]. International Review of Economics & Finance, 2017, 47:176-200.
[18] 郝威亚,魏玮,温军.经济政策不确定性如何影响企业创新?——实物期权理论作用机制的视角[J].经济管理,2016,(10):40-54.
[19] 孟庆斌,师倩.宏观经济政策不确定性对企业研发的影响:理论与经验研究[J].世界经济,2017,(9):75-98.
[20] 顾夏铭,陈勇民,潘士远.经济政策不确定性与创新——基于我国上市公司的实证分析[J].经济研究,2018,(2):109-123.
[21] Duong H. N., Nguyen J. H., Nguyen M., et al. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Cash Holdings[R]. SSRN, 2017.
[22] 王红建,李青原,邢斐.经济政策不确定性、现金持有水平及其市场价值[J].金融研究,2014,(9):53-68.
[23] 李凤羽,史永东.经济政策不确定性与企业现金持有策略——基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].管理科学学报,2016,(6):157-170.
[24] 张光利,钱先航,许进.经济政策不确定性能够影响企业现金持有行为吗?[J].管理评论,2017, (9):15-27.
[25] 饶品贵,徐子慧.经济政策不确定性影响了企业高管变更吗?[J].管理世界,2017,(1):145-157.
[26] 彭俞超,韩珣,李建军.经济政策不确定性与企业金融化[J].中国工业经济,2018,(1):137-155.
[27] Wright P., Ferris S. P., Sarin A., et al. Impact of Corporate Insider, Blockholder, and Institutional Equity Ownership on Firm Risk Taking[J]. Academy of Management Journal,1996,39(2):441-463.
[28] 余明桂,李文贵,潘红波.管理者过度自信与企业风险承担[J].金融研究,2013,(1):149-163.
[29] Faccio M., Marchica M. T., Mura R. CEO Gender and Corporate Risk-Taking[J]. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 2014,(39):193-209.
[30] 何威风,刘巍,黄凯莉.管理者能力与企业风险承担[J].中国软科学,2016,(5):107-118.
[31] 张敏,童丽静,许浩然.社会网络与企业风险承担——基于我国上市公司的经验证据[J].管理世界,2015,(11):161-175.
[32] 李凤羽,杨墨竹.经济政策不确定性会抑制企业投资吗?——基于中国经济政策不确定指数的实证研究[J].金融研究,2015,(4):115-129.
[33] 王义中,宋敏.宏观经济不确定性、资金需求与公司投资[J].经济研究,2014,(2):4-17.