治理能力与政府债务风险——基于跨国面板数据的分析

财经论丛 ›› 2019, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (4): 13-25.

治理能力与政府债务风险——基于跨国面板数据的分析

王姝黛, 孙琳

复旦大学经济学院,上海 200433

收稿日期:2018-03-22 出版日期:2019-04-10 发布日期:2019-04-11
作者简介:王姝黛(1991-),女,云南昆明人,复旦大学经济学院博士;孙琳(1973-),女,山东沂南人,复旦大学经济学院副教授。
基金资助:
上海市教育委员会科研创新计划人文社科重大项目(2009-01-00-07-E00054);上海市浦江人才计划(14PJC010)

Governance and Government Debt Risk——Analysis Based on International Panel Data

WANG Shudai, SUN Lin

School of Economics, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China

Received:2018-03-22 Online:2019-04-10 Published:2019-04-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文使用2002~2015年跨国面板数据,分析各国政府治理能力对公共债务风险的影响。研究发现政府综合治理能力提升有助于债务规模的控制,这种控制作用在基期实现治理盈余的国家更为显著。政府治理能力表现出明显的木桶效应:治理能力的财政绩效会受到最薄弱治理环节的影响。当前的政府治理改革不存在统一路径,各国应根据自身情况,优先改善当期治理赤字项目。为了强化债务风险控制,中国应加强问责与监督机制的建设,提高财政透明度,重构财政约束机制。

关键词: 治理能力, 政府债务风险, 治理盈余, 治理赤字

Abstract: This paper uses international panel data from 1991 to 2015 to analyse the relationship between governance and the economic development, and to discover how the relationship influences the government debt risk. The study finds that the improvement of governance capacity has a positive impact on the control of the debt scale. In a country with governance surplus in a given base year, the impact is more significant. “Bucket Effect” can be observed in governance capacity. The fiscal performance of governance depends on the short board. There is no unified path for worldwide governance reform. Every country should ameliorate governance deficit programs preferentially, according to its own circumstances. In order to control the debt risk effectively, China should strengthen the construction of accountability and supervision mechanisms, improve fiscal transparency, and rebuild fiscal restraint mechanisms.

Key words: Governance Capacity, Government Debt Risk, Governance Surplus, Governance Deficit

中图分类号:

F812.2

王姝黛, 孙琳. 治理能力与政府债务风险——基于跨国面板数据的分析[J]. 财经论丛, 2019, 35(4): 13-25.

WANG Shudai, SUN Lin. Governance and Government Debt Risk——Analysis Based on International Panel Data[J]. , 2019, 35(4): 13-25.

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