关键词: 交通拥堵, 空间外溢, 城市化, 空间滞后解释变量模型

Abstract: This paper uses the spatial lag of X model to identify the spatial externalities of congestion in the process of urbanization employing the panel data of Chinese cities. The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped correlation between the urbanization level and the increase of the traffic density of the city itself and of the nearby cities. Moreover, the traffic density in most cities has become such that there have appeared obvious congestion effects. During the urbanization process, the effects of congestion externalities increase with the size of the city. However, the traffic congestion effects of cities of various grades are different. Specifically, the congestion spillover effects of small cities are greater than those of medium-sized cities in the eastern region; the congestion spillover effects of type-Ⅱ large cities is the minimum among the various grades of cities in the central region; in the western region, the congestion effects of type-Ⅱand above cities are comparatively high, and the traffic density of medium-sized and small cities has a positive spatial spillover effect on the urbanization process.

Key words: Traffic Congestion, Spatial Spillovers, Population Urbanization, Spatial Lag of X Model